Table 3.

Number of Predicted HIV Infections in Malawi in Different Scenarios

	Failed Scale-up			Universal ART			Test&Treat
	New Infections 2020	Total New Infections 2017–2020	Total New Infections 2017–2050	New infections2020	Total New Infections 2017–2020	Total New Infections 2017–2050	New Infections 2020	Total New Infections 2017–2020	Total New Infections 2017–2050
i) CD4 monitoring, no tracing	13363	60182 (ref)	326790 (ref)	infections	53419 (ref)	260908 (ref)	9751	49422 (ref)	241548 (ref)
ii) CD4 monitoring, tracing	13314	60023 (0.3%)	324965 (0.6%)	2020	53262 (0.3%)	259498 (0.5%)	9705	49268 (0.3%)	240265 (0.5%)
iii) CD4 monitoring, no interruptions	12438	57218 (4.9%)	293353 (10.2%)	9955	50503 (5.5%)	235083 (9.9%)	8904	46553 (5.8%)	218062 (9.7%)
iv) 24-m VL monitoring, no tracing	13284	59927 (0.4%)	323868 (0.9%)	10762	53168 (0.5%)	258650 (0.9%)	9678	49175 (0.5%)	239495 (0.9%)
v) 24-m VL monitoring, tracing	13289	59942 (0.4%)	324039 (0.8%)	10766	53182 (0.4%)	258782 (0.8%)	9682	49190 (0.5%)	239615 (0.8%)
vi) 24-m VL monitoring, no interruptions	12384	57044 (5.2%)	291420 (10.8%)	9903	50331 (5.8%)	233591 (10.5%)	8854	46384 (6.1%)	216705 (10.3%)
vii) 12-m VL monitoring, no tracing	13232	59760 (0.7%)	321959 (1.5%)	10712	53003 (0.8%)	257175 (1.4%)	9630	49013 (0.8%)	238153 (1.4%)
viii) 12-m VL monitoring, tracing	13154	59511 (1.1%)	319122 (2.3%)	10638	52758 (1.2%)	254983 (2.3%)	9559	48772 (1.3%)	236160 (2.2%)
ix) 12-m VL monitoring, no interruptions	12312	56815 (5.6%)	288888 (11.6%)	9835	50106 (6.2%)	231637 (11.2%)	8789	46163 (6.6%)	214927 (11.0%)

Percentages in parentheses refer to the reduction compared with scenario (i) (first row) of the corresponding access scenario (Failed scale-up, Universal ART, or Test&Treat).

Abbreviations: ART, antiretroviral therapy; VL, viral load.