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. 2018 May 31;7:e34463. doi: 10.7554/eLife.34463

Figure 3. Associations between mean oocyst density; the proportion of mosquitoes that develop oocysts; and gametocyte density.

(A) The relationship between mean oocyst density and the proportion of mosquitoes that develop oocysts (red = Ouelessebougou, Mali, green = Yaoundé, Cameroon, blue = Bobo Dioulasso, Burkina Faso, purple = Balonghin, Burkina Faso; point size is proportional to the number of mosquitoes dissected). A Hill function gave the best fit to these data (DIC linear = 1310; power = 602; Hill = 434). (B) The relationship between total gametocyte density and the mean oocyst density in all mosquitoes. The power function gave the best fit to these data (DIC linear = 1042; hyperbolic = 1044; gompertz = 1067; power = 1036); total gametocyte density gave a better fit than only female gametocyte density (best DIC = 1061). Horizontal and vertical lines indicate 95% Bayesian credible intervals (CIs) around point estimates, solid black line indicates the best-fit model with grey shaded area indicates the 95% CI around this line. Like Figure 2A, Panel 3B aids clarity by scaling model and data to the average infectivity of the largest dataset though the raw data and model fits are provided in Figure 3—figure supplement 1.

Figure 3.

Figure 3—figure supplement 1. Site-specific differences in the relationship between Plasmodium falciparum female gametocyte density and the proportion of mosquitoes that develop oocysts.

Figure 3—figure supplement 1.

Figure is the same as Figure 3B but without the scaling average oocyst density to the Mali dataset. Panel (A) shows all sites together whilst (B–E) show figures for each site independently. Point colour denotes the study from which the observation came: Ouelessebougou, Mali (red, (B)), Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso (blue, (C)), Yaoundé, Cameroon (green, (D)), and Balonghin, Burkina Faso (purple, (E)). Horizontal and vertical lines indicate 95% Bayesian credible intervals (CIs) around point estimates. The coloured lines indicate the best-fit model for each site with the shaded area indicates the 95% CI uncertainty around these lines. The colours of the lines correspond to the colours of the points. Best fit model predictions are projected across the gametocyte-density range observed per site.