Table 2.

Framework for incorporating uncertainty associated with variability of climate predictions into conservation planning.

	Low conservation value		High conservation value
	Low climate uncertainty	High climate uncertainty	Low climate uncertainty	High climate uncertainty
High climate vulnerability	Emphasize innovation	Emphasize innovation and prepare for surprises	Emphasize reserves and provide for flexibility	Emphasize reserves and plan for experimental approach
Low climate vulnerability	Emphasize restoration	Emphasize restoration and prepare for surprises	Emphasize traditional reserves	Emphasize reserves and provide for flexibility

Based on the framework of Belote et al.¹⁷ (Fig. 1), we adjust recommendations given certainty in predictions of climate exposure. In areas of low conservation value where restoration of active innovative management may be required to restore ecological functions and biodiversity, a high of uncertainty in climate exposure may lead to “surprises” in responses. In areas of high conservation values, where reserves may protect lands of high ecological integrity or importance, a high degree of climate uncertainty may require an acknowledgement of management flexibility or use of experimental approaches to adaptively maintain biodiversity and ecological function.