Table 4.
Trends in Pancreatic Cancer Incidence-based mortality Rates (1973-2014)
| Overall (1973-2014) | Trend | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||
| APCa (95% CI) | P valueb | Year | APCa (95% CI) | P valueb | Year | APCa (95% CI) | P valueb | Year | APCa (95% CI) | P valueb | Year | APCa (95% CI) | P valueb | |
| Overall | 2.22 (1.93-2.51) | <.001 | 1973-1982 | 4.58 (3.38-5.79) | <.001 | 1982-2000 | 1.45 (1.08-1.83) | <.001 | 2000-2012 | 3.83 (3.21-4.45) | <.001 | 2012-2014 | -24.70 (-31.78 - -16.88) | <.001 |
| Sex | ||||||||||||||
| Male | 2.31 (2.03-2.59) | <.001 | 1973-1975 | 15.14 (0.57-31.82) | .04 | 1975-2000 | 1.83 (1.59-2.06) | <.001 | 2000-2012 | 4.03 (3.40-4.67) | <.001 | 2012-2014 | -24.52 (-31.71 - -16.57) | <.001 |
| Female | 2.17 (1.85-2.49) | <.001 | 1973-1983 | 5.34 (3.99-6.71) | <.001 | 1983-2000 | 1.20 (0.68-1.73) | <.001 | 2000-2012 | 3.66 (2.85-4.47) | <.001 | 2012-2014 | -24.79 (-33.89 - -14.44) | <.001 |
| Race | ||||||||||||||
| White | 1.92 (1.64-2.21) | <.001 | 1973-1976 | 12.10 (4.45-20.30) | <.001 | 1976-2001 | 1.53 (1.29-1.78) | <.001 | 2001-2012 | 3.50 (2.73-4.28) | <.001 | 2012-2014 | -24.89 (-32.58 - -16.32) | <.001 |
| Black | 2.91 (2.54-3.27) | <.001 | 1973-1980 | 8.93 (4.65-13.38) | <.001 | 1980-2001 | 2.19 (1.55-2.82) | <.001 | 2001-2012 | 4.46 (3.00-5.94) | <.001 | 2012-2014 | -24.30 (-37.98 - -7.60) | .01 |
| Othersc | 4.86 (4.40-5.31) | <.001 | 1973-2012 | 5.23 (4.92-5.53) | <.001 | 2012-2014 | -22.08 (-37.33 - -3.13) | .03 | ||||||
| Age at death, y | ||||||||||||||
| <60 | 1.50 (1.10-1.91) | <.001 | 1973-1993 | 0.19 (-0.34-0.73) | .46 | 1993-2005 | 4.03 (2.84-5.24) | <.001 | 2005-2012 | 0.44 (-2.06-3.00) | .72 | 2012-2014 | -33.46 (-45.65 - -18.53) | <.001 |
| >60 | 2.40 (2.10-2.70) | <.001 | 1973-1983 | 5.42 (4.30-6.55) | <.001 | 1983-2002 | 1.46 (1.11-1.82) | <.001 | 2002-2012 | 4.57 (3.69-5.46) | <.001 | 2012-2014 | -22.92 (-30.31 - -14.75) | <.001 |
| Stage at diagnosisd | ||||||||||||||
| Localized | 1.39 (0.92-1.87) | <.001 | 1973-1981 | 9.30 (5.75-12.97) | <.001 | 1981-1999 | -0.94 (-1.83 - -0.04) | .04 | 1999-2012 | 4.57 (3.09-6.07) | <.001 | 2012-2014 | -27.92 (-44.80 - -5.87) | .02 |
| Regional | 2.94 (2.47-3.41) | <.001 | 1973-1977 | 12.80 (2.50-24.14) | .02 | 1977-2012 | 3.13 (2.88-3.38) | <.001 | 2012-2014 | -36.81 (-49.61 - -20.77) | <.001 | |||
| Distant | 2.35 (2.07-2.63) | <.001 | 1973-1975 | 25.14 (6.66-46.83) | .01 | 1975-1995 | 1.10 (0.72-1.49) | <.001 | 1995-2012 | 3.83 (3.42-4.25) | <.001 | 2012-2014 | -17.61 (-25.68 - -8.66) | <.001 |
aAnnual Percentage Changes, calculated using Joinpoint regression software
bTwo-sided P value was calculated using t test to determine the significance of APC change
cIncludes American Indian/Alaskan Native and Asian/Pacific Islander
dUsing SEER historic stage A