Table 2.
Time series and intervention models for HVL, PCP (%) and PMH (%) in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil, 2006–2013
| Indicator | Variable | Coefficient | SE | Z-value | P-value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HVLa | Theta_1 | -1.03 | 0.05 | -19.53 | < 0.0001 |
| Theta_5 | -0.37 | 0.11 | -3.33 | < 0.0001 | |
| Theta_6 | 0.55 | 0.09 | 5.67 | < 0.0001 | |
| Dummy_jan_2008_3 | 0.28 | 0.09 | 3.09 | < 0.0001 | |
| Dummy_jan_2008_4 | -0.30 | 0.00 | -3.36 | < 0.0001 | |
| PCPb | Phi_1 | 0.62 | 0.08 | 7.20 | < 0.0001 |
| Theta_1 | -1.00 | 0.06 | -14.94 | < 0.0001 | |
| Dummy_jan_2011 | 0.68 | 0.24 | 2.82 | < 0.0001 | |
| Dummy_jan_2011_1 | -1.83 | 0.43 | -4.19 | < 0.0001 | |
| Dummy_jan_2011_2 | 1.13 | 0.25 | 4.49 | < 0.0001 | |
| PMHc | Phi_1 | 0.99 | 0.07 | 12.61 | < 0.0001 |
| Phi_3 | -0.18 | 0.08 | -2.25 | 0.02 | |
| Theta_1 | -1.49 | 0.03 | -39.96 | < 0.0001 | |
| Theta_3 | 0.49 | 0.03 | 13.19 | < 0.0001 | |
| Dummy_apr_2008 | 0.76 | 0.06 | 11.42 | < 0.0001 | |
| Dummy_aug_2009 | -6.87 | 1.36 | -5.04 | < 0.0001 | |
| Dummy_aug_2009_1 | 5.97 | 1.31 | 4.53 | < 0.0001 |
Abbreviations: HVL human visceral leishmaniasis, PCP proportion of canine prevalence = positive dogs in ELISA and RIFI/ dogs evaluated, PMH proportion of monitoring hosts (dogs not euthanized by the health service) = positive dogs only in the ELISA/ dogs evaluated; SE standard error
aHVL: Autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) (0, 1, 6) adjusted; Akaike information criterion: 103.40, Schwarz criterion: 118.19, and Hannan-Quinn criterion: 109.35
bPCP: ARIMA (1, 1, 1) adjusted; Akaike information criterion: 25.99, Schwarz criterion: 40.93, and Hannan-Quinn criterion: 32.01
cPMH:ARIMA (3, 1, 3) adjusted; Akaike information criterion: 425.40, Schwarz criterion: 445.40, and Hannan-Quinn criterion: 433.46