Table 4.

The total number of infections reported and simulated in assumed scenarios.

Scenario	Reported Total Infections ${}^1$	Change ${}^2$
Reported	37,420	-
Fitted	37,733	-
${\pi }_{max}$ decreased by 10%	18,758	Decreased by 50.29%
${\pi }_{max}$ increased by 10%	61,684	Increased by 63.47%
Intervention 10 days earlier	14,831	Decreased by 60.69%
Intervention 10 days delayed	84,746	Increased by 124.59%
Vaccinating 10%	21,232	Decreased by 43.73%
Vaccinating 20%	11,563	Decreased by 69.36%

${}^1$ The reported total infections were calculated by multiplying the total infections predicted by the models by a constant 3.2 according to the I:S ratio [69]; ${}^2$ The rates of change were calculated based on the fitted total infection.