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. 2018 Jun 15;15(6):1270. doi: 10.3390/ijerph15061270

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© 2018 by the authors.

Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

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(a) Current climatic suitability for the establishment of Aedes albopictus in Germany, averaged over the county level in Germany. (b) Incidence of (potentially viraemic) travel-associated CHIKV and DENV infection cases at the county level (cases per 100,000 population by county over the years 2011–2017, from the RKI-hosted national-level database on notifiable diseases SURVNET). (c) Likelihood of Aedes albopictus meeting viraemic returning travellers, potentially leading to transmission, shown as a combination of the modelled climatic suitability for Aedes albopictus at the county level, and DENV and CHIKV incidence in returning travellers. Circles: high-precision occurrence records derived from the literature for both single introduction events (grey) and established (overwintering) populations (blue) of Aedes albopictus; only the latter were used for modelling. Black and grey lines respectively indicate level-2 and level-3 administrational units (federal states and “Kreis”) of Germany. Administrative units provided by the Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy in Germany BKG: GeoBasis-DE / BKG 2013.