Table 2.
Predictors of mortality at 12 months of highly active antiretroviral therapy.
| Clinical variables | Mortality | No mortality | Bivariate analysis | Multivariate analysis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cHR | 95% CI | p value | aHR | 95%CI | p value | |||
| Baseline demography | ||||||||
| Age (months) | ||||||||
| <12 | 0 (0) | 22 (100) | 0.000 | — | 0.987 | — | — | — |
| 12–35 | 2 (5.6) | 34 (94.4) | 1.309 | 0.278–6.163 | 0.734 | — | — | — |
| 36–59 | 0 (0) | 58 (0) | 0.000 | — | 0.980 | — | — | — |
| >59 (ref) | 8 (4.2) | 184 (95.8) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gender | ||||||||
| Female | 4 (2.9) | 134 (97.1) | 0.834 | 0.235–2.954 | 0.778 | — | — | — |
| Male (ref) | 6 (3.5) | 164 (96.5) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| HAART regimens at 6 month | ||||||||
| EFV based | 0 (0) | 48 (100) | 0.000 | — | 0.984 | 0.024 | 0.000–576.64 | 0.470 |
| LPV/r based | 6 (13.6) | 38 (86.4) | 7.975 | 2.248–28.284 | 0.001 | 1379 | — | 0.952 |
| ABC/3TC/AZT or D4T | 0 (0) | 2 (100) | 0.000 | — | 0.997 | 4.143 | — | 0.987 |
| NVP based | 4 (1.9) | 210 (98.1) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Incident TB | ||||||||
| Yes | 3 (8.3) | 33 (91.4) | 1.314 | 0.279–6.190 | 0.729 | — | — | — |
| No (ref) | 7 (2.6) | 265 (97.4) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Virological failure within first 6 months | ||||||||
| Yes | 6 (13.6) | 38 (86.4) | 9.892 | 2.789–35.088 | 0.001 | 167.9 | — | 0.941 |
| No (ref) | 4 (1.5) | 260 (98.5) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| WHO clinical staging | ||||||||
| 3 and 4 | 4 (2.2) | 178 (97.8) | 0.450 | 0.127–1.594 | 0.216 | — | — | — |
| 1 and 2 (ref) | 6 (4.8) | 120 (95.2) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Laboratory response to HAART at 6 months | ||||||||
| CD4 count at 6 months Severe immunosuppression# |
||||||||
| Yes | 6 (8.6) | 64 (91.4) | 5.40 | 1.523–19.139 | 0.009 | 17.28 | 3.844–77.700 | 0.001 |
| No (ref) | 4 (1.7) | 234 (98.3) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Anaemia (<8 g/dl) at 6 months | ||||||||
| Yes | 2 (5.0) | 38 (95.0) | 1.631 | 0.346–7.683 | 0.536 | — | — | — |
| No (ref) | 8 (3.0) | 260 (97.0) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Anthropometric response to HAART at 6 months | ||||||||
| WHZ at 6 months | ||||||||
| <−2 SD | 0 (0) | 2 (100) | 0.000 | — | 0.987 | — | — | — |
| ≥−2 SD (ref) | 2 (1.8) | 112 (98.2) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| BMI at 6 months | ||||||||
| <18.5 | 4 (2.4) | 162 (97.6) | 0.153 | 0.038–0.611 | 0.008 | 0.001 | 0.000–6.223 | 0.120 |
| ≥18.5 (ref) | 4 (15.4) | 22 (84.6) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Ref = referenced variable; TB = tuberculosis; cHR = crude hazard ratio; aHR = adjusted hazard ratio; 95% CI = 95% confidence interval; NVP = nevirapine; EFV = efavirenz; LPV/r = lopinavir/ritonavir; ABC = abacavir; 3TC = lamivudine; AZT = zidovudine; d4T = starvudine; HAART = highly active antiretroviral therapy; WHO = World Health Organization; WHZ = weight for health Z-score; BMI = body mass index; #2006 WHO age-dependent immunological criteria dichotomized into Yes or No for severe immunosuppression.