Table 2.

Parameter values with description and baseline values. All prior distributions were uniform.

symbol	parameter description	baseline value	prior distribution	notes and references
Nr	number of households with MDR-TB index case	213	/	[22]
Ns	number of households with DS-TB index case	487	/	[22]
h	household size	2–15	/	[17]
p	proportion of (re-)infected individuals who progress to the ‘latent fast’ state	0.15	0.08–0.25	[23–25]
χ	protection from developing active TB upon reinfection	0.35	0.25–0.45	[23,26–29]
ϕ	rate of reactivation among those latently infected per year	1.13 × 10−4	1–3×10−4	[23,26,27,29–31]
ɛ	probability of acquiring new drug resistance during treatment	0.008	0.005–0.01	[32]
d	proportion of new active cases which directly become infectious	0.5	0.25–0.75	[23,29,33,34]
μ	background death rate	1/77 = 0.013	0.012–0.014	inverse of average life expectancy in Peru [35]
μA	additional death rate of those actively infected and infectious per year	0.26	0.2–0.4	[23]
N	annual rate of natural cure for TB cases (returns to latent state)	0.2	0.15–0.25	[23]
ωs	proportion of DS-TB active cases detected and treated per year	0.8; 2	0.5–0.95	for 2012 [2] for pre-study; in study: screen every 6 months
ωr	proportion of MDR-TB active cases detected and treated per year	0.64; 2	0.2–0.9	79% of the above 80% (ωs) found that received DST in 2012 [36]; in study: screen every 6 months
(1 – ks)	proportion of DS-TB active cases started on treatment that are successfully cured	0.74	0.5–0.9	[36,37] (for midpoint of study)
(1 – kr)	proportion of MDR-TB active cases started on treatment that are successfully cured	0.6	0.2–0.9	for 2012 [2]
pf	progression rate of latent fast individuals to active disease	0.2	0.1–0.9	duration of fast latency period of 5 years [27]