Table 2.

Projection of China's long‐term care needs (in million)

Statistical Categories	Disability Level	2015	2020	2025	2030
Low range	Mild	11.96	14.68	16.51	19.03
	Moderate	2.89	3.55	3.99	4.60
	Severe	1.84	2.26	2.54	2.93
	Total	16.69	20.48	23.04	26.56
Medium range	Mild	11.96	15.43	18.25	22.13
	Moderate	2.89	3.73	4.41	5.35
	Severe	1.84	2.37	2.81	3.40
	Total	16.69	21.54	25.48	30.88
High range	Mild	11.96	16.22	20.16	25.69
	Moderate	2.89	3.92	4.88	6.21
	Severe	1.84	2.50	3.10	3.95
	Total	16.69	22.64	28.14	35.85

Low range assumes that the proportion of elderly people receiving LTC decreases at a rate of 1% per year, medium range assumes that this proportion does not change, and high range assumes that it increases at a rate of 1% per year.