Table V.
Simplified Description and Results of the Scenarios (Scenario 1 Is Considered as the Baseline)
| Proportion of Servings (%) with | Number of (on 2,000 Servings) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | Compliance with Exclusion Period Pc/PNC ;1/PNC ;2 /PNC ;3 (%) | Exclusion Period after Symptom Resolution | Simplified Description of the Scenario | > 0 NoV | > 100 NoV | > 1,000 NoV | Infected Customers, Mean [90% Variability Interval] | Sick Customers, Mean [90% Variability Interval] | %Baseline Number of Infected Customers | %Baseline Number of Servings >1,000 |
| 1 | 74 / 6.0 / 7.0 / 13 | 24 hours | Baseline | 9.7 | 1.7 | 0.54 | 74.0 [2.1, 233.7] | 1.7 [0.0, 7.9] | 100 | 100 |
| 2 | – | – | FE‐1 not sick, 15% asymptomatic shedder (lower baseline) | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.04 | 9.6 [0.0, 61.0] | 0.1 [0.0, 0.4] | 13 | 7 |
| 3 | 0 / 0 / 0 / 100 | – | FE‐1 always work while ill (upper baseline) | 21.5 | 4.9 | 1.76 | 167.4 [29.0, 357.7] | 5.2 [0.1, 17.2] | 226 | 324 |
| 4 | 100 / 0 / 0 / 0 | 24 hours | Full exclusion compliance, 24 hours | 7.4 | 1.0 | 0.31 | 55.8 [1.4, 176.4] | 1.0 [0.0, 4.8] | 75 | 58 |
| 5 | 100 / 0 / 0 / 0 | 48 hours | Full exclusion compliance, 48 hours | 6.8 | 0.9 | 0.26 | 51.2 [1.1, 165.5] | 0.8 [0.0, 4.1] | 69 | 48 |
| 6 | 74 / 9.1 / 3.9 / 13 | 48 hours | Exclusion extension | 8.9 | 1.5 | 0.47 | 67.9 [1.7, 222.8] | 1.5 [0.0, 7.1] | 92 | 87 |
| 7 | 64 / 12.6 / 5.4 / 18 | 48 hours | Exclusion extension, slight decrease in compliance | 9.7 | 1.7 | 0.55 | 74.2 [1.8, 240.3] | 1.7 [0.0, 8.1] | 100 | 101 |
| 8 | 54 / 16.1 / 6.9 / 23 | 48 hours | Exclusion extension, significant decrease in compliance | 10.5 | 1.9 | 0.63 | 80.5 [2.1, 255.1] | 1.9 [0.0, 9.1] | 109 | 116 |
| 9 | 84 / 3.7 / 4.3 / 8 | 24 hours | Improved compliance | 8.7 | 1.4 | 0.45 | 66.3 [1.8, 211.6] | 1.4 [0.0, 6.6] | 90 | 82 |
| 10 | 74 / 6.0 / 7.0 / 13 | 24 hours | Wash restrooms every four hours | 9.4 | 1.6 | 0.53 | 71.7 [2.1, 225.4] | 1.6 [0.0, 7.7] | 97 | 98 |
| 11 | 74 / 6.0 / 7.0 / 13 | 24 hours | No barehand contact, 100% wear gloves, current compliance with changing gloves | 11.1 | 1.7 | 0.49 | 84.1 [1.4, 266.9] | 1.6 [0.0, 7.8] | 114 | 91 |
| 12 | 74 / 6.0 / 7.0 / 13 | 24 hours | Full handwashing compliance in restrooms, 100% wash hands in restrooms | 9.2 | 1.5 | 0.48 | 69.9 [1.7, 223.7] | 1.5 [0.0, 7.2] | 94 | 89 |
| 13 | 74 / 6.0 / 7.0 / 13 | 24 hours | Touchless faucet and door in restroom | 7.3 | 1.3 | 0.46 | 55.8 [0.7, 191.3] | 1.4 [0.0, 6.8] | 75 | 85 |
| 14 | 74 / 6.0 / 7.0 / 13 | 24 hours | Food handling restriction, FE‐3 replaces FE‐1 during 24 hours | 10.1 | 1.7 | 0.56 | 77.0 [2.1, 237.3] | 1.7 [0.0, 8.2] | 104 | 103 |
| 15 | 74 / 6.0 / 7.0 / 13 | 48 hours | Food handling restriction, FE‐3 replaces FE‐1 during 24 hours | 9.3 | 1.5 | 0.48 | 70.5 [1.7, 225.8] | 1.5 [0.0, 7.3] | 95 | 89 |
| 16 | 74 / 6.0 / 7.0 / 13 | 24 hours | Food handling restriction, FE‐3 replaces FE‐1 during 48 hours | 10.4 | 1.8 | 0.57 | 79.3 [2.1, 241.3] | 1.8 [0.0, 8.5] | 107 | 105 |
| 17 | 100 / 0 / 0 / 0 | 24 hours | Full exclusion compliance + food handling restriction, FE‐3 replaces FE‐1 during 24 hours | 7.7 | 1.1 | 0.33 | 58.5 [1.5, 181.9] | 1.0 [0.0, 5.0] | 79 | 60 |
| 18 | 74 / 6.0 / 7.0 / 13 | 24 hours | 100% wear gloves, 100% change gloves, 100% wash hands while changing gloves and in restrooms | 5.7 | 0.7 | 0.17 | 42.6 [0.0, 160.0] | 0.6 [0.0, 3.1] | 58 | 31 |
| 19 | 74 / 6.0 / 7.0 / 13 | 24 hours | Handwashing efficacy (additional 1log10 reduction) | 6.1 | 0.8 | 0.25 | 45.9 [0.7, 152.0] | 0.8 [0.0, 3.9] | 62 | 46 |
| 20 | 74 / 6.0 / 7.0 / 13 | 24 hours | Handwashing efficacy (additional 2log10 reduction) | 5.2 | 0.7 | 0.20 | 38.9 [0.3, 133.3] | 0.7 [0.0, 3.3] | 53 | 37 |
| 21 | 80 / 0 / 0 / 20 | 24 hours | Baseline + considering only compliant and noncompliant type 3 (did not declare illness and worked while symptomatic) | 10.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 77.3 [2.1, 246.9] | 1.8 [0.0, 8.7] | 104 | 111 |
| 22 | 80 / 0 / 0 / 20 | 48 hours | Baseline + considering only compliant and noncompliant type 3 (did not declare illness and worked while symptomatic) + 48 hours | 9.7 | 1.7 | 0.56 | 73.9 [1.7, 243.4] | 1.7 [0.0, 8.3] | 100 | 100 |
Pc: Proportion of compliant food employees regarding the Food Code exclusion recommendation; PNC ;1: proportion of noncompliant food employee type 1, PNC 2: proportion of noncompliant food employee type 1, PNC 3: proportion of noncompliant food employee type 1 (see text and Fig. 2 for further details). FE‐1: food employee 1 (see text and Fig. 2 for further details). The 90% variability interval represents the 5th and the 95th percentiles of the distribution of the number of infected and sick customers over 1,000,000 stores.