Figure 1.

Receiver operating curve (ROC) demonstrating the ability of the logistic regression model to discern future growth at predefined growth rate thresholds. ROC curves were first plotted using two variables (baseline FMD and AAA diameter) to analyse the performance of the generalised linear logistic regression model. The ROC curves are plotted with the threshold of “stable/no growth“ (A) (defined as growth ≤ 0mm/year) or “fast growth” (B) (defined as upper tertile of growth within the group, during the respective period) at both 12 and 24 months (blue and red line respectively).