Figure 1.

Mean surface temperature over (a) land, (b) ocean (sea surface temperatures), and (c) global (combined land + ocean) in observations (mean: black; gray lines: possible realizations given uncertainty [Kennedy et al., 2011; Morice et al., 2012]), CMIP5 multimodel mean simulations with all historical forcings (thick red line: average and thin lines: individual simulations) relative to an average over the full period. All model data are masked to observational coverage, and for combined land and sea a blend of surface air temperatures and sea surface temperature is calculated following Cowtan and Way (2014). (d) Residual variability for land and sea blend after subtracting the multimodel mean forced component, compared to 5–95% uncertainty ranges of multimodel control simulations (Method and models used the same as in Schurer et al., 2018). The blue line in panel (c) shows a global proxy‐based reconstruction (Crowley, Obrochta, & Liu, 2014) and the pink bar highlights the ETCW