Fig 2. Delta and residual density methods generate wider distributions over trajectories than methods that treat entire seasons as units.

These plots show sample forecasts of wILI trajectories generated from models that treat seasons as units (BR, Empirical Bayes) and from models incorporating delta and residual density methods. Yellow, the latest wILI report available for these forecasts; magenta, the ground truth wILI available at the beginning of the following season; black, a sample of 100 trajectories drawn from each model; cyan, the closest trajectory to the ground truth wILI from each sample of 100.