Table 5. Summary of cumulative incidence of cases avoided and cumulative costs avoided in England for each scenario relative to baseline for PM2.5 and NO2, by period.
| Scenario | Parameter | PM2.5 | NO2 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 (95% CI) | 2017–2025 (95% CI) | 2017–2035 (95% CI) | 2017 (95% CI) | 2017–2025 (95% CI) | 2017–2035 (95% CI) | ||
| Baseline | Cumulative incidence of cases | 644,873 (643,114 to 646,632) |
6,119,754 (6,114,646 to 6,124,862) |
13,654,072 (13,645,973 to 13,662,171) |
661,566 (659,721 to 663,411) |
6,215,963 (6,210,268 to 6,221,658) |
13,855,589 (13,847,049 to 13,864,129) |
| 1-μg/m3 reduction in PM2.5 and NO2 | Cumulative incidence of cases | 636,526 (634,767 to 638,285) |
6,033,265 (6,028,157 to 6,038,373) |
13,465,656 (13,457,557 to 13,473,755) |
659,896 (658,051 to 661,741) |
6,198,788 (6,193,093 to 6,204,483) |
13,822,000 (13,813,460 to 13,830,540) |
| Cumulative incidence of cases avoided (relative to baseline) | 8,345 (6,191 to 10,499) |
86,483 (80,227 to 92,739) |
188,415 (178,496 to 198,334) |
1,669 (−880 to 4,218) |
17,173 (9,303 to 19,866) |
33,589 (21,789 to 36,435) |
|
| Total cost avoided relative to baseline (millions of British pounds)* | 11.6 (3.4 to 19.8) |
408.3 (380.8 to 435.8) |
1,424.2 (1,378.3 to 1,470.1) |
4.09 (−12.24 to 20.42) |
108.71 (53.73 to 163.69) |
353.33 (260.16 to 446.5) |
|
| Primary care cost avoided | 1.59 (−1 to 4.18) |
50.27 (41.64 to 58.9) |
167.16 (152.8 to 181.52) |
0.69 (−2.01 to 3.39) |
19.89 (10.89 to 28.89) |
65.63 (50.61 to 80.65) |
|
| Secondary care cost avoided | 5.56 (−0.31 to 11.42) |
196.62 (177.09 to 216.15) |
683.71 (651 to 716.42) |
0.97 (−2.65 to 4.59) |
27.94 (15.91 to 39.97) |
92.1 (72.08 to 112.12) |
|
| Medication cost avoided | 2.91 (−0.38 to 6.2) |
102.95 (91.97 to 113.93)1 |
362.59 (344.2 to 380.98) |
0.56 (−1.53 to 2.65) |
16.07 (9.12 to 23.02) |
53.05 (41.47 to 64.63) |
|
| Social care cost avoided | 1.51 (−2.51 to 5.53) |
58.48 (45.1 to 71.86) |
210.73 (188.45 to 233.01) |
1.87 (−13.68 to 17.42) |
44.81 (−7.62 to 97.24) |
142.55 (53.55 to 231.55) |
|
| EU limit values met | Cumulative incidence of cases | Not applicable | 652,106 (650,261 to 653,951) |
6,119,176 (6,113,481 to 6,124,871) |
13,630,127 (13,621,587 to 13,638,667) |
||
| Cumulative incidence of cases avoided (relative to baseline) | 9,458 (6,909 to 12,007) |
96,786 (88,916 to 104,656) |
225,465 (213,665 to 237,265) |
||||
| Total cost avoided relative to baseline (millions of British pounds)* | Not applicable | 12.92 (−3.41 to 29.25) |
442.81 (387.84 to 497.78) |
1,692.87 (1,599.75 to 1,785.99) |
|||
| Primary care cost avoided | 2.34 (−0.36 to 5.04) |
83.19 (74.2 to 92.18) |
324.1 (309.11 to 339.09) |
||||
| Secondary care cost avoided | 3.25 (−0.37 to 6.87) |
116.9 (104.88 to 128.92) |
456.06 (436.08 to 476.04) |
||||
| Medication cost avoided | 2.02 (−0.07 to 4.11) |
71.7 (64.75 to 78.65) |
280.19 (268.63 to 291.75) |
||||
| Social care cost avoided | 5.31 (−10.24 to 20.86) |
171.02 (118.6 to 223.44) |
632.52 (543.56 to 721.48) |
||||
Scaling to the population of England may lead to rounding discrepancies between cases and costs avoided.
*All costs are in millions of British pounds and are for the total population of England.