Table 3.

Multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis of 1 SD increase in the change of different lipid components and ratios, for incident type 2 diabetes, Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (1999–2015)

Lipid parameters	Hazard ratio (95% CI)	P-value	AIC	Harrell’s C
TC (mmol/L)
Model 1	1.11(1.02–1.21)	0.019	9489	0.65
Model 2	1.15 (1.05–1.26)	0.003	9043	0.78
Model 3	1.12(1.02–1.23)	0.018	9025	0.78
Model 4	0.999(0.91–1.10)	0.99	8840	0.81
LnTG
Model 1	1.20(1.10–1.31)	< 0.001	9399	0.69
Model 2	1.18(1.08–1.29)	< 0.001	9021	0.78
Model 3	1.14(1.03–1.25)	0.008	9003	0.79
Model 4	1.09(0.99–1.20)	0.09	8821	0.81
HDL-C (mmol/L)
Model 1	0.80(0.72–0.88)	< 0.001	9486	0.65
Model 2	0.85(0.77–0.94)	0.001	9041	0.78
Model 3	0.86(0.78–0.95)	0.003	9021	0.78
Model 4	0.84(0.76–0.93)	0.001	8831	0.81
LDL-C (mmol/L)
Model 1	1.11(1.02–1.22)	0.016	9499	0.65
Model 2	1.14(1.04–1.25)	0.004	9045	0.78
Model 3	1.12(1.02–1.23)	0.018	9026	0.78
Model 4	1.01(0.92–1.11)	0.81	8842	0.81
Non-HDL-C (mmol/L)
Model 1	1.16(1.06–1.26)	0.001	9474	0.66
Model 2	1.20(1.09–1.31)	< 0.001	9035	0.78
Model 3	1.16(1.06–1.27)	0.001	9019	0.78
Model 4	1.04(0.95–1.15)	0.38	8839	0.81
LnTG/HDL-C
Model 1	1.23(1.13–1.35)	< 0.001	9408	0.68
Model 2	1.19(1.09–1.31)	< 0.001	9021	0.78
Model 3	1.15(1.05–1.26)	0.002	9004	0.79
Model 4	1.14(1.04–1.25)	0.007	8822	0.81
TC/HDL-C
Model 1	1.21(1.13–1.29)	< 0.001	9461	0.66
Model 2	1.15(1.07–1.23)	< 0.001	9036	0.78
Model 3	1.13(1.06–1.22)	0.001	9018	0.78
Model 4	1.12(1.04–1.21)	0.003	8833	0.81

TC: total cholesterol; TG: triglycerides; HDL-C: high density lipoprotein cholesterol, LDL-C: low density lipoprotein cholesterol, CI: confidence interval, AIC: Akaike's information criteria 

Model 1: adjusted for age, sex, and baseline measurements of lipid profile

Model 2: adjusted for age sex, education, lipid drug use, family history of type 2 diabetes, history of cardiovascular disease, hypertension and baseline measurements of fasting plasma glucose (FPG), body mass index (BMI), waist circumferences (WC) and lipid profile

Model 3: model 2+ BMI change

Model 4: model 3+ FPG change