Table 4.
Hazard ratios for predicting type 2 diabetes in different models of tertiles of changes in lipid components, Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (1999–2015)
| Lipid parameters | 1sttertile changing value | 2ndtertile changing value | 3rdtertile changing value | P trend | AIC | Harrell’s C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR (95%CI) | HR (95%CI) | HR(95%CI) | ||||
| TC (mmol/L) | ||||||
| Model 1 | 1.00 | 1.08(0.88–1.33) | 1.13 (0.90–1.40) | 0.56 | 9496 | 0.65 |
| Model 2 | 1.00 | 1.11(0.91–1.37) | 1.25(1.001–1.56) | 0.14 | 9050 | 0.78 |
| Model 3 | 1.00 | 1.07(0.87–1.32) | 1.16 (0.92–1.45) | 0.46 | 9031 | 0.78 |
| Model 4 | 1.00 | 0.97(0.79–1.19) | 0.95(0.76–1.18) | 0.89 | 8842 | 0.81 |
| LnTG | ||||||
| Model 1 | 1.00 | 1.08(0.86–1.36) | 1.49(1.22–1.82) | < 0.001 | 9401 | 0.69 |
| Model 2 | 1.00 | 1.03(0.82–1.30) | 1.39(1.13–1.70) | 0.002 | 9022 | 0.78 |
| Model 3 | 1.00 | 0.99(0.78–1.24) | 1.29(1.05–1.59) | 0.013 | 9003 | 0.79 |
| Model 4 | 1.00 | 0.92(0.73–1.16) | 1.22(0.99–1.49) | 0.026 | 8819 | 0.81 |
| HDL-C (mmol/L) | ||||||
| Model 1 | 1.00 | 0.85(0.68–1.05) | 0.74(0.58–0.95) | 0.06 | 9502 | 0.65 |
| Model 2 | 1.00 | 0.90(0.72–1.12) | 0.84(0.66–1.07) | 0.35 | 9051 | 0.77 |
| Model 3 | 1.00 | 0.91(0.73–1.13) | 0.86(0.68–1.10) | 0.49 | 9031 | 0.78 |
| Model 4 | 1.00 | 0.87(0.70–1.08) | 0.81(0.64–1.04) | 0.25 | 8842 | 0.81 |
| LDL-C (mmol/L) | ||||||
| Model 1 | 1.00 | 1.13(0.92–1.40) | 1.20(0.97–1.49) | 0.25 | 9504 | 0.65 |
| Model 2 | 1.00 | 1.16(0.94–1.43) | 1.28(1.03–1.59) | 0.08 | 9050 | 0.78 |
| Model 3 | 1.00 | 1.12(0.91–1.38) | 1.21(0.97–1.50) | 0.24 | 9031 | 0.78 |
| Model 4 | 1.00 | 1.03(0.83–1.27) | 1.00(0.80–1.25) | 0.96 | 8844 | 0.81 |
| Non-HDL-C (mmol/L) | ||||||
| Model 1 | 1.00 | 1.02(0.82–1.26) | 1.31(1.06–1.62) | 0.019 | 9479 | 0.66 |
| Model 2 | 1.00 | 1.05(0.85–1.29) | 1.45(1.17–1.80) | 0.001 | 9039 | 0.78 |
| Model 3 | 1.00 | 1.01(0.82–1.25) | 1.35(1.08–1.68) | 0.008 | 9022 | 0.78 |
| Model 4 | 1.00 | 0.94(0.76–1.16) | 1.11(0.89–1.38) | 0.32 | 8839 | 0.81 |
| LnTG/HDL-C | ||||||
| Model 1 | 1.00 | 1.23(0.97–1.55) | 1.53(1.25–1.86) | < 0.001 | 9414 | 0.68 |
| Model 2 | 1.00 | 1.12(0.89–1.42) | 1.42(1.16–1.74) | 0.002 | 9025 | 0.78 |
| Model 3 | 1.00 | 1.09(0.86–1.38) | 1.33(1.08–1.63) | 0.016 | 9007 | 0.79 |
| Model 4 | 1.00 | 1.12(0.88–1.42) | 1.33(1.08–1.63) | 0.019 | 8823 | 0.81 |
| TC/HDL-C | ||||||
| Model 1 | 1.00 | 1.22(0.98–1.52) | 1.47(1.19–1.82) | 0.002 | 9474 | 0.66 |
| Model 2 | 1.00 | 1.12(0.90–1.39) | 1.43(1.16–1.77) | 0.002 | 9039 | 0.78 |
| Model 3 | 1.00 | 1.09(0.87–1.36) | 1.35(1.09–1.67) | 0.013 | 9022 | 0.78 |
| Model 4 | 1.00 | 1.09(0.87–1.36) | 1.27(1.02–1.57) | 0.08 | 8838 | 0.81 |
TC: total cholesterol, TG: triglyceride, HDL-C: high density lipoprotein cholesterol, LDL-C: low density lipoprotein cholesterol, HR: hazard ratio, CI: confidence interval, AIC:Akaike's information criteria.
Model 1: adjusted for age, sex, and baseline measurements of lipid profile
Model 2: adjusted for age sex, education, lipid drug use, family history of type 2 diabetes, history of cardiovascular disease, hypertension and baseline measurements of fasting plasma glucose (FPG), body mass index (BMI), waist circumferences (WC) and lipid profile
Model 3: model 2+ BMI change
Model 4: model 3+ FPG change