Table 2.

Models aiming to predict progression to OADC

Author/year	Study type	Patient no (P:NP)	Model used	Result
Clément et al 200635	Retrospective cohort	28* (12:16)	APC+TIMP3+TERT	Hypermethylation in P versus NP (P 81% vs NP 26% P<0.0001)
Jin et al 200941	Retrospective cohort	195* (50:145)	Biomarker panel (p16, HPP1, RUNX3, CDH13, TAC1, NELL1, AKAP12, SST)	AUROC 0.72
			Biomarker panel+age (p16, HPP1, RUNX3, CDH13, TAC1, NELL1, AKAP12, SST)	AUROC 0.85
Sato et al 200840	Retrospective cohort	62 (28:34)	Methylation index (p16, HPP1, RUNX3)	Hypermethylation in P versus NP AUROC 0.75 (no CI stated)
			Methylation index (p16, HPP1, RUNX3), segment length, pathology	AUROC 0.79 (95% CI 0.6968 to 0.8853) Sensitivity 91.4 Specificity 51.8
Schulmann et al 200539	Retrospective cohort	53 (8:45)	Age, segment length, HPP1, TIMP3, APC, p16, CRBP1, RUNX3	HPP1, p16, RUNX3 independent risk factors in multivariate analyses Model combined HR index >5 leads to an increased likelihood of progression within 2 years
Wang et al 200938	Retrospective cohort	57 (7:50)	P16+APC	Hypermethylation of both APC and p16 OR 14.97 (95% CI 1.73 to ∞, P=0.012) for neoplastic progression

*Number of lesions, no patient numbers described in the study; number of progressor lesions (P), number of non-progressor lesions (NP).

AUROC, area under receiver operating characteristic; NP, non-progressing patients; OADC, oesophageal adenocarcinoma; P, progressing patients.