Table 3.

Proportional odds model for selecting trainees into their preferred foundation school

Variable/parameter	Model 1 (R2=0.084)				Model 2 (R2=0.311)				Model 3 (R2=0.37)
	Estimate(β)	Sig	95% CI for exp (coefficient)		Estimate(β)	Sig	95% CI for exp (coefficient)		Estimate(β)	Sig	95% CI for exp (coefficient)
			Lower bound	Upper bound			Lower bound	Upper bound			Lower bound	Upper bound
Threshold
Outside top three	−2.579	<0.001	−2.915	−2.243	−5.304	<0.001	−5.663	−4.945	−4.946	<0.001	−5.349	−4.543
Second or third choice	−1.565	<0.001	−1.895	−1.235	−4.086	<0.001	−4.433	−3.739	−3.651	<0.001	−4.042	−3.259
First choice	Ref				Ref
UKFP selection score					−0.430	<0.001	−0.455	−0.405	−0.551	<0.001	−0.585	−0.517
Gender
Female	Ref				Ref
Male	−0.222	<0.001	−0.346	−0.098	−0.02	0.971	−0.121	0.116	−0.036	0.567	−0.158	0.086
Highest qualification on entry
Graduate	0.226	0.111	−0.052	0.504	−0.059	0.651	−0.314	0.196	0.039	0.769	−0.223	0.302
Non-graduate	Ref				Ref
Type of secondary school attended
State-funded school or college	Ref				Ref
Fee-paying school	−0.224	0.001	−0.357	−0.091	−0.307	<0.001	−0.435	−0.180	−0.258	<0.001	−0.389	−0.126
Income support
Yes	−0.053	0.603	−0.253	0.147	0.025	0.768	−0.142	0.193	0.015	0.865	−0.157	0.187
No	Ref				Ref
Participation of local areas (POLAR 2&3)
Other neighbourhood	−0.274	0.094	−0.594	0.047	−0.495	0.001	−0.786	−0.203	−0.413	0.008	−0.717	−0.109
Low participation neighbourhood (POLAR 2&3)	Ref				Ref
Ethnicity
Asian or Asian British	−0.859	<0.001	−1.005	−0.712	−0.578	<0.001	−0.715	−0.441	−0.410	<0.001	−0.553	−0.267
Black or black British	−1.258	<0.001	−1.641	−0.875	−0.755	<0.001	−1.101	−0.409	−0.490	0.007	−0.848	−0.132
Mixed	−0.322	0.047	−0.639	0.005	−0.035	0.818	−0.337	0.266	0.076	0.632	−0.234	0.386
Other ethnic groups	−0.792	<0.001	−1.160	−0.424	−0.733	<0.001	−1.074	−0.392	−0.527	0.003	−0.879	−0.175
White	Ref				Ref
(UK) place of medical qualification
England	Ref				Ref
Northern Ireland	0.770	0.000	0.430	1.111	2.031	<0.001	1.535	2.528	2.537	<0.001	2.010	3.063
Scotland	0.403	0.019	0.067	0.738	1.463	<0.001	1.219	1.706	1.172	<0.001	0.864	1.481
Wales	1.123	0.000	0.843	1.404	0.584	<0.001	0.282	0.886	0.153	0.353	−0.170	0.476
Foundation school competition ratio
Group 1 (least competitive foundation school)									0.440	0.004	0.137	0.743
Comp ratio group 2									1.526	<0.001	1.178	1.875
Comp ratio group 3									2.010	<0.001	1.677	2.343
Comp ratio group 4									0.726	<0.001	0.406	1.045
Comp ratio group 5									0.325	0.056	−0.009	0.659
Comp ratio group 6									0.559	<0.001	0.283	0.836
Comp ratio 7									2.113	<0.001	1.783	2.443
Comp ratio 8									1.784	<0.001	1.373	2.195
Comp ratio 9									1.465	<0.001	1.155	1.776
Group 10 (most competitive foundation school)									Ref

Model 1: model without UKFP selection score as the controlling factor.

Model 2: after adjusting for UKFP selection score.

Model 3: after adjusting for UKFP selection score and foundation school competition ratio.

UKFP, UK Foundation Programme.