Table 4.
Logistic regression models for deterioration within 72 h from admission based on repeated vital sign measurements with a 30-min interval during the first 3 h of ED admission
| Sig. | Odds Ratio (95% CI) | Model statistics | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cox & Snell R2 | AUC (95% CI) | N a | ||||
| Base model for deterioration within 72 h from admission | .080 | .679 (.619; .739) | 359 (100%) | |||
| Age | .012* | 1.022 (1.005; 1.039) | ||||
| Gender (0 = male, 1 = female) | .502 | 0.839 (0.502; 1.402) | ||||
| Cardiac disease | .158 | 1.544 (0.845; 2.820) | ||||
| COPD | .159 | 1.906 (0.777; 4.676) | ||||
| Diabetes | .035* | 1.902 (1.048; 3.454) | ||||
| Chronic kidney disease | .308 | 1.475 (0.699; 3.111) | ||||
| Chronic liver disease | .345 | 1.493 (0.650; 3.429) | ||||
| Organ transplant | .245 | 1.408 (0.791; 2.509) | ||||
| Malignancy | .450 | 0.807 (0.463; 1.407) | ||||
| Base model with heart rate | ||||||
| HR-M1. | Heart rate at admission | .042* | 1.013 (1.000; 1.025) | .091 | .683 (.623; .742) | 359 (100%) |
| HR-M2. | Heart rate at admission | .035* | 1.015 (1.001; 1.030) | .091 | .684 (.624; .743) | 358 (99.7%) |
| Heart rate change | .463 | 1.039 (0.938; 1.151) | ||||
| HR-M3. | Heart rate at admission | .062 | 1.013 (0.999; 1.027) | .091 | .683 (.624; .743) | 359 (100%) |
| Heart rate variability | .884 | 0.998 (0.977; 1.021) | ||||
| Base model with mean arterial pressure | ||||||
| MAP-M1. | MAP at admission | <.001* | 0.955 (0.937; 0.972) | .156 | .746 (.688; .804) | 357 (99.4%) |
| MAP-M2. | MAP at admission | <.001* | 0.940 (0.920; 0.961) | .176 | .758 (.701; .815) | 355 (98.9%) |
| MAP change | .003* | 0.873 (0.798; 0.954) | ||||
| MAP-M3. | MAP at admission | <.001* | 0.941 (0.922; 0.960) | .223 | .800 (.750; .850) | 357 (99.4%) |
| MAP variability | <.001* | 1.060 (1.037; 1.084) | ||||
| Base model with respiratory rate | ||||||
| RR-M1. | Respiratory rate at admission | .042* | 1.048 (1.002; 1.097) | .075 | .663 (.592; .735) b | 267 (74.4%) |
| RR-M2. | Respiratory rate at admission | .004* | 1.086 (1.027; 1.148) | .096 | .686 (.617; .755) b | 242 (67.4%) |
| Respiratory rate change | .018* | 1.441 (1.063; 1.952) | ||||
| RR-M3. | Respiratory rate at admission | .144 | 1.022 (0.988; 1.071) | .087 | .676 (.605; .746) b | 267 (74.4%) |
| Respiratory rate variability | .063 | 1.067 (0.996; 1.142) | ||||
| Base model with body temperature | ||||||
| BT-M1. | Body temperature at admission | .607 | 1.059 (0.845; 1.319) | .083 | .680 (.619; .741) | 355 (98.9%) |
| BT-M2. | Body temperature at admission | .880 | 1.020 (0.786; 1.324) | .080 | .681 (.619; .743) | 342 (95.3%) |
| Body temperature change | .677 | 0.720 (0.153; 3.385) | ||||
| BT-M3. | Body temperature at admission | .962 | 0.994 (0.790; 1.252) | .090 | .683 (.622; .745) | 355 (98.9%) |
| Body temperature variability | .097 | 1.389 (0.942; 2.049) | ||||
AUC: area under the receiver operating curve; CI: confidence interval; COPD: Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease; HR: Heart rate, MAP: mean arterial pressure; RR: respiratory rate; BT: body temperature; Sig.: statistical significance; * significant result (p < 0.05)
aMissing or observations that were constant within the measured time period are excluded from the regression model; b the AUC of the base model only including patients with respiratory rate at admission was .638