Table 1.
Relative trends in burned area, number of fires, and mean fire size for different regions of the world. Trends are shown for different time periods, as indicated, to directly compare burned area estimates from different sources. All trends were calculated using fire season estimates of burned area, with exception of the FireMIP data, which were produced per calendar year (28).
| Fire product | Time period |
Full or residual1 |
Trend (% yr−1) with 95% confidence limits
|
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | North America | South America | Eurasia2 | Southeast Asia | Africa | Australia | |||
| Burned area (GFED4s) | 1998–2015 | Full | −1.35 (0.49)*** | −0.37 (2.66) | −1.68 (2.75) | −0.80 (1.98) | 0.23 (1.94) | −1.27 (0.32)*** | −2.53 (4.23) |
| PA | −0.99 (0.29)*** | 0.40 (2.13) | −0.51 (1.68) | −0.26 (1.34) | 0.25 (1.32) | −1.26 (0.25)*** | −0.67 (1.91) | ||
| Burned area (GFED4s) during the MODIS era | 2003–2015 | Full | −1.27 (0.95)** | −0.08 (2.17) | −2.66 (5.38) | −2.18 (2.98) | −0.30 (3.23) | −1.51 (0.51)*** | 1.48 (7.95) |
| PA | −1.17 (0.39)*** | 0.33 (1.77) | −1.75 (3.14) | −1.24 (1.96) | −0.13 (2.02) | −1.45 (0.42)*** | 0.39 (3.16) | ||
| Burned area from 500m MODIS MCD64A1 | 2003–2015 | Full | −1.15 (1.21)* | 0.61 (2.76) | −1.40 (6.99) | −2.23 (4.13) | −0.62 (3.92) | −1.60 (0.56)*** | 1.53 (8.21) |
| PA | −1.23 (0.44)*** | 0.78 (2.12) | −1.09 (3.64) | −1.02 (2.35) | −0.61 (2.46) | −1.68 (0.46)*** | 0.56 (3.40) | ||
| Fire number | 2003–2015 | Full | −0.98 (0.73)** | −1.44 (2.92) | −2.67 (4.98) | −3.56 (4.39) | −1.10 (3.36) | −0.87 (0.38)*** | 1.50 (6.59) |
| PA | −1.00 (0.35)*** | −1.41 (2.37) | −2.13 (2.55)* | −3.46 (3.06)** | −1.03 (1.96) | −0.88 (0.30)*** | 0.73 (2.83) | ||
| Fire size | 2003–2015 | Full | −0.39 (0.38)** | 0.47 (1.73) | 1.39 (2.32) | −0.09 (2.03) | −0.68 (0.99) | −0.78 (0.29)*** | −0.29 (1.69) |
| PA | −0.43 (0.18)*** | 0.32 (1.28) | 1.29 (1.28)** | −0.16 (1.36) | −0.69 (0.85) | −0.81 (0.21)*** | 0.08 (1.11) | ||
| Burned area predicted by FireMIP3 | 1997–2013 | Full | −0.13 (0.56) | −0.36 (1.37) | −0.06 (0.77) | 0.06 (0.53) | −1.89 (1.95) | −0.25 (0.70) | −0.50 (2.42) |
Colors indicate increases (red) and decreases (blue) in burned area for each region and time period; significant trends are denoted by asterisks (* p<0.1, ** p<0.05, and *** p<0.01).
Residual time series, after adjusting for the influence of precipitation variability (PA), were estimated using the approach described in the Supplementary Materials.
Eurasia excludes regions in Southeast Asia.
In this instance, numbers between parentheses are the standard deviation of the trend averaged across the different FireMIP models (n=9).