Table 1.
Univariate analysis of baseline characteristics, CTSI values, and complications in survivors and non-survivors.
| Totala n = 148 | Survivors n = 122 | Non- survivors = 26 | HRcrude (95% CI) | p-value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline characteristics and CTSI | |||||
| Age, years, mean (SD) | 54.1 (17.5) | 50.8 (16.4) | 69.5 (14.1) | 1.07 (1.04–1.10) | <0.001 |
| Males, n (%) | 107 (72.3) | 91 (74.6) | 16 (61.5) | 1 | 0.02 |
| BMI, mean (SD) | 26.3 (5.4) | 25.8 (5.2) | 30.3 (5.9) | 1.12 (1.03–1.22) | 0.005 |
| Cause of pancreatitis, n (%) | |||||
| Biliary | 48 (32.4) | 36 (29.5) | 12 (46.2) | 1 | 0.32 |
| Alcohol abuse | 64 (43.2) | 56 (45.9) | 8 (30.8) | 0.51 (0.21–1.25) | |
| Otherb | 36 (24.3) | 30 (24.6) | 6 (23.1) | 0.65 (0.24–1.73) | |
| Comorbidities, n (%) | |||||
| Diabetes | 20 (13.5) | 13 (10.7) | 7 (26.9) | 2.59 (1.09–6.17) | 0.03 |
| Hypertension | 58 (39.2) | 42 (34.4) | 16 (61.5) | 2.64 (1.20–5.82) | 0.02 |
| Dyslipidaemia | 38 (25.7) | 32 (26.2) | 6 (23.1) | 0.87 (0.35–2.17) | 0.77 |
| Smoking | 54 (36.5) | 49 (40.2) | 5 (19.2) | 0.42 (0.16–1.12) | 0.08 |
| Alcohol usec | 73 (49.3) | 63 (51.6) | 10 (38.5) | 0.65 (0.29–1.43) | 0.28 |
| Chronic pancreatitis | 12 (8.1) | 12 (9.8) | 0 (0) | – | – |
| SAPS II, mean (SD) | 38.1 (19.7) | 33.5 (18.5) | 52 (16.7) | 1.04 (1.02–1.06) | <0.001 |
| CTSI, mean (SD) | 5.9 (2.4) | 5.5 (2.2) | 7.7 (2.2) | 30.7 (5.1–183.5) | <0.001 |
| Complications, n (%) | |||||
| No OF | 26 (17.6) | 26 (21.3) | 0 (0) | 1 | |
| One or two OFs | 60 (40.5) | 60 (49.2) | 0 (0) | – | |
| ≥3 OFs | 62 (41.9) | 36 (29.5) | 26 (100) | – | |
| Persistent OF (>48 hours) | 63 (42.6) | 44 (36.1) | 19 (73.1) | 3.84 (1.61–9.14) | 0.002 |
| Type of persistent OF, n (%): | |||||
| Respiratory failure | 93 (62.8) | 68 (55.7) | 25 (96.2) | 15.92 (2.16–117.48) | 0.007 |
| Mechanical ventilation | 63 (42.6) | 44 (36.1) | 19 (73.1) | 3.79 (1.59–9.02) | 0.003 |
| ARDS | 23 (15.5) | 13 (10.7) | 10 (38.5) | 3.81 (1.72–8.40) | 0.001 |
| Circulatory failure | 62 (41.9) | 36 (29.5) | 26 (100) | – | <0.001 |
| Pressor aminesd | 49 (33.1) | 30 (24.6) | 19 (73.1) | 6.07 (2.55–14.43) | <0.001 |
| Renal failure | 66 (44.6) | 40 (32.8) | 26 (100) | – | <0.001 |
| RRT | 25 (16.9) | 12 (9.8) | 13 (50) | 5.89 (2.72–12.71) | <0.001 |
| PSMVT, n (%) | 76 (51.7) | 59 (48.4) | 17 (68) | 1.94 (0.84–4.51) | 0.12 |
| Perforation of hollow organ, n (%) | 5 (3.4) | 4 (3.3) | 1 (3.8) | 1.01 (0.14–7.50) | 0.99 |
| Bowel ischaemia, n (%) | 7 (4.7) | 2 (1.6) | 5 (19.2) | 6.65 (2.48–17.84) | <0.001 |
| Gastrointestinal bleeding, n (%) | 13 (8.8) | 10 (8.2) | 3 (11.5) | 1.24 (0.37–4.14) | 0.72 |
| Intervention for infected pancreatic necrosise, n (%) | 64 (43.2) | 53 (43.4) | 11 (42.3) | 0.84 (0.38–1.83) | 0.66 |
| Surgical necrosectomy, n (%) | 36 (24.3) | 26 (21.3) | 10 (38.5) | 1.79 (0.81–3.94) | 0.15 |
HR: hazard ratio; 95% CI: 95% confidence interval; BMI: body mass index; IQR: interquartile range; SAPS II: Simplified Acute Physiology Score version II18 determined 24 hours after intensive care unit admission; CTSI: Computed Tomography Severity Index, which can range from 0 to 10 and was ≥ 3 in all study patients; OF: organ failure; ARDS: acute respiratory distress syndrome; RRT: renal replacement therapy; PSMVT: portosplenomesenteric venous thrombosis.
Of the 148 study patients, 16 died during the first week; of the remaining 132 patients, 62 did and 70 did not develop infected pancreatic necrosis.
Other causes of pancreatitis: hypertriglyceridemia, unknown, drug-induced causes, post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography, traumatic.
Alcohol consumption > 20 g/day in women and 30 g/day in men.
Pressor amines: Pressor amines initiate because of persisting hypotension with mean blood pressure <65 mmHg despite adequate fluid resuscitation >40 ml/kg.
Radiological, endoscopical and surgical interventions.