Table 4.

Marginal probability effect estimates from multilevel regression modeling of endoscopy utilization in 8 states

	CA		CT		lA		KY		LA		NJ		NM		UT
Variable	5% file	100% file	5% file	100% file	5% fOe	100% file	5% file	100% file	5% file	100% file	5% file	100% file	5% file	100% fUe	5% file	100% file
age75–84	−0.061	−0.059	−0.110	−0.112	−0.075	−0.075	−0.069	−0.075	−0.063	−0.056	−0.071	−0.067	−0.081	−0.069	−0.122	−0.115
age 85+	−0.210	−0.223	−0.347	−0.323	−0.253	−0.253	−0.258	−0.238	−0.190	−0.193	−0.222	−0.225	−0.231	−0.255	−0.264	−0.299
Female	−0.007*	−0.018	−0.031	−0.040	.	−0.005	0.024	0.024	0.016*	0.005	−0.039	−0.042	.	0.007	−0.044	−0.021
African American	−0.019*	−0.026	.	.	.	.	.	−0.030	−0.051	−0.073	.	−0.007	−0.125	−0.043	.	.
Hispanic	−0.062	−0.055	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	−0.052	0.069	0.051	−0.053	−0.039	.	−0.064
Asian	.	0.007	−0.163	−0.046	−0.404	−0.063	.	.	.	−0.100	−0.130	−0.084	.	.	.	.
Native American	−0.099	−0.063	.	.	.	.	.	−0.211	.	.	.	.	−0.210	−0.205	.	.
Other race/ethnicity	−0.034	−0.039	.	−0.036	−0.199	−0.061	.	.	.	−0.084	.	−0.038	.	−0.138	−0.185	−0.081
disability was the original reason for Medicare entitlement	.	−0.019	.	−0.051	.	−0.023	.	−0.014	.	−0.008	.	−0.016	.	−0.036	.	−0.033
have state buy-in to help purchase Part B coverage	−0.001	−0.001	−0.001	−0.001	−0.001	−0.001	−0.001	−0.001	−0.001	0.000	0.000	−0.001	−0.001	−0.001	−0.002	−0.001
moved to new residence	.	−0.010	−0.039	−0.017	.	−0.010	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	−0.010	.	.
miles to closest endoscopy provider	−0.001	−0.001	.	.	.	0.000	.	−0.001	.	.	−0.005	−0.003	.	−0.001	.	−0.001
isolation index - African American	.	.	−0.002	−0.001	.	−0.002	−0.001	−0.001	.	0.001	.	0.000	.	0.007	.	−0.005
isolation index - Hispanic	−0.001	−0.001	.	.	−0.005	−0.003	.	−0.002	.	.	.	0.000	.	−0.001	.	.
isolation index - Asian	0.000*	0.000	0.008	0.009	0.008	0.007	0.011*	0.003	.	−0.005	0.001	0.001	.	−0.034	.	.
isolation index - Native American	.	−0.001	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	−0.003	.	0.006	.	−0.001	.	.
proportion workers who commute 60 minutes or more each way to work	.	−0.001	0.004	0.003	−0.010	−0.009	.	−0.003	−0.004	−0.004	.	0.001	.	.	.	.
proportion elderly with no/poor English language ability	−0.001	−0.001	.	0.000	.	−0.001	.	0.000	.	0.001	−0.001	−0.001	.	0.000	.	0.000
Medicare managed care penetration in 1998	.	0.001	−0.005*	.	.	0.001	.	−0.001	0.001	0.001	.	−0.001	.	0.002	.	.
proportion county population in rural tracts	−0.001	0.000	.	0.000	.	0.000	.	0.000	.	0.000	.	.	.	−0.001	.	−0.001
poverty rate	0.001	0.002	.	.	.	0.002	−0.005	−0.004	−0.003*	−0.002	.	−0.002	.	0.001	.	−0.007
Endoscopy providers per thousand elderly	0.002	0.002	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	.	0.000	0.001	0.001	.	0.001
oncologists per thousand elderly	.	−0.027	.	−0.139	.	.	.	0.075	−0.196	−0.115	0.123*	.	.	.	.	.
Model prediction success rate	0.626	0.619	0.594	0.591	0.602	0.609	0.623	0.623	0.635	0.624	0.618	0.605	0.664	0.660	0.597	0.589