Analysis of simulated microscopy data. The different ground truth models are denoted by their total bound state dwell times: , , , and , respectively. (a) Shows the number of states selected by the VB and PBF criteria. (b) Shows diffusion coefficients for the VB-selected models. Dashed colored lines indicate the true diffusion constants of the U, TC, and states. For the model, two states near 0.1 μ are found. (c) VB-estimated parameters and (d) ground truth parameters of the four-state model are shown with transition probabilities per time step below suppressed. States are named and colored according to the obvious similarity with the true scheme in (c). (e) Bound and (f) unbound state mean dwell times, computed from the transition probability matrix. For the model, we added the dwell times of the two B states. Dashed lines indicate the true mean dwell times. Error bars indicate bootstrap SEs. In (f), missing error bars indicate where not all bootstrap replicas gave finite mean dwell times. All data sets contain ∼16,000 steps. To see this figure in color, go online.