Table 2. Projected impact, costs and savings from the VMMC program in a 'status quo' background context, relative to the counterfactual scenario of no VMMC program ever.
| Scenario | Outcome | Goals modela | ICL modelb | EMOD modela,c |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results over 2009–2016 | Number of VMMCs performed | 845,500 | 845,428 | 891,500 |
| Number of HIV infections averted | 12,200 (2%) | 7,200 (1.6%) | 2,600 (0.5%) | |
| Number of VMMCs per infection averted | 69 | 115 | 335 | |
| Cost per infection averted | $7,600 | $12,600 | $36,500 | |
| Results 2009–2030; scenario Program ends after 2016 | Number of VMMCs performed | 845,500 | 845,428 | 891,500 |
| Number of HIV infections averted | 69,800 (5%) | 24,400 (2.3%) | 52,250 (4%) | |
| Number of VMMCs per infection averted | 12 | 34 | 17 | |
| Cost per infection averted | $1,320 | $3,700 | $1,860 | |
| Results 2009–2030; scenario Program ends after 2018/19 | Number of VMMCs performed | 1,777,000 | 1,515,900 | 1,262,000 |
| Number of HIV infections averted | 126,000 (10%) | 37,500 (3.5%) | 71,000 (6%) | |
| Number of VMMCs per infection averted | 14 | 40 | 18 | |
| Cost per infection averted | $1,500 | $4,400 | $1,900 | |
| Results 2009–2030; scenario Program targets through 2021 met and maintained | Number of VMMCs performed | 3,257,000 | 3,158,000 | 3,210,000 |
| Number of HIV infections averted | 171,000 (13%) | 128,000 (12%) | 108,000 (10%) | |
| Number of VMMCs per infection averted | 19 | 25 | 30 | |
| Cost per infection averted | $2,100 | $2,700 | $3,250 | |
| Savings in ART costs, 2017–2030 | $198 million | $55 million | $158 million |
The percentages in parentheses represent the proportion of new HIV infections averted relative to the number of new HIV infections in the counterfactual scenario.
a Health and cost-effectiveness outcomes are for all ages
b Health and cost-effectiveness outcomes are for age 15–49 years only
c Over this short time period, EMOD outcomes are influenced by noise from stochastic variation.