Table 1. Selected time-lagged linear regressions (labeled models M2, M5, etc.) between secularization (S), development (GDP), tolerance (V), and education (E).
The time lag is y = 2 decades in all cases (results for y = 1, 2, and 3 decades in table S14). SEs, in parentheses, were determined from the inverse of the negative Hessian matrix (44). N is the number of data points for each autoregression, n is the number of countries included in the data set, i is the percentage of residual variance explained by the random effect (country), and h is the percentage explained by cultural heritage. R2 is the total variance explained. Bonferroni-corrected significance: *P < 0.1, **P < 0.05, ****P < 0.01.
| Model | M2 | M5 | M8 | M11 | M14 | M17 |
| Variable | S | GDP | S | GDP | S | GDP |
| Fixed effect | ||||||
| GDPt−2 | −0.02 (0.03) | 0.87 (0.04)*** | −0.01 (0.03) | 0.78 (0.04)*** | −0.04 (0.05) | 0.83 (0.05)*** |
| St−2 | 0.97 (0.02)*** | 0.28 (0.03)**** | 0.99 (0.04)*** | 0.01 (0.04) | 0.97 (0.02)*** | 0.22 (0.02)*** |
| Vt−2 | −0.02 (0.03) | 0.32 (0.04)*** | ||||
| Et−2 | 0.14 (0.2) | 0.97 (0.19)*** | ||||
| Random effect | ||||||
| i | 0.14*** | 0.21*** | 0.14*** | 0.19*** | 0.15*** | 0.16*** |
| h | 0.14*** | 0.12* | 0.14*** | 0.1 | 0.12* | 0.09 |
| Summary | ||||||
| R2 | 0.99 | 0.89 | 0.99 | 0.9 | 0.99 | 0.91 |
| N | 324 | 469 | 324 | 469 | 274 | 382 |
| n | 95 | 101 | 95 | 101 | 69 | 70 |