Table 3.
Transition probabilities and life expectancy of patients with CIS.
| Stage | State | Probability(95%CI) | Stage Reward | Cumulative Reward |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 0 | 5 | 5 | ||
| CIS | 1 | 0 | ||
| RRMS | 0 | 0 | ||
| SPMS | 0 | 0 | ||
| Death | 0 | 0 | ||
| Stage 1 | 9.88 | 14.88 | ||
| CIS | 0.358 (0.251, 0.465) | 3.58 | ||
| RRMS | 0.481 (0.370, 0.593) | 4.81 | ||
| SPMS | 0.149 (0.069, 0.227) | 1.49 | ||
| Death | 0.012 (0.000, 0.071) | 0 | ||
| Stage 2 | 9.63 | 24.51 | ||
| CIS | 0.128 (0.050, 0.197) | 1.28 | ||
| RRMS | 0.447 (0.334, 0.555) | 4.47 | ||
| SPMS | 0.388 (0.275, 0.491) | 3.88 | ||
| Death | 0.036 (0.008, 0.111) | 0 | ||
| Stage 3 | 9.25 | 33.76 | ||
| CIS | 0.046 (0.014, 0.128) | 0.46 | ||
| RRMS | 0.317 (0.206, 0.411) | 3.17 | ||
| SPMS | 0.562 (0.458, 0.678) | 5.62 | ||
| Death | 0.075 (0.016, 0.132) | 0 | ||
| Stage 4 | 8.76 | 42.52 | ||
| CIS | 0.016 (0.000, 0.054) | 0.16 | ||
| RRMS | 0.203 (0.109, 0.286) | 2.03 | ||
| SPMS | 0.657 (0.549, 0.760) | 6.57 | ||
| Death | 0.123 (0.050, 0.197) | 0 | ||
| Stage 5 | 4.12 | 46.64 | ||
| CIS | 0.005 (0.000, 0.047) | 0.03 | ||
| RRMS | 0.124 (0.050, 0.197) | 0.62 | ||
| SPMS | 0.694 (0.589, 0.794) | 3.47 | ||
| Death | 0.176 (0.089, 0.257) | 0 |
CIS: clinically isolated syndrome; RRMS: relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis; SPMS: secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Stage: cycle period, each cycle period refers to 10 years; e.g., “Stage 0” refers to the period before the first cycle, and “Stage 1” refers to the first cycle. State: disease state. Probability: transition probability at each stage. Stage reward: life expectancy at each stage. Cumulative reward: cumulative life expectancy at each stage.