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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2018 Nov 1.
Published in final edited form as: Landsc Urban Plan. 2017 Nov;167:429–440. doi: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2017.07.021

Table 1.

Statistical Analysis of BAU Scenario Against Data for Selected Tier 1 Variables.

Variable Historical data source Historical data R2value Avg absolute% deviation from historical data Projected data source Projected data R2value Avg absolute% deviation from projected data
Population U.S. Census Bureau (U.S. Census Bureau, 2000, 2014) 0.976 0.57% Triangle Regional Model (TRM) v5 Socioeconomic (SE) Data (DCHC MPO, 2013) 0.999a 2.9%a
Developed land Community Viz 2 Parcel Geodatabase (TJCOG, 2014) Insufficient data points 2.50% Imagine 2040 Results Grid Data (TJCOG, 2014) Insufficient data points 4.60%
Nonresidential sq ft Chatham County Tax Administration Office, 2014; Durham County Tax Administration, 2000–2014; Orange County Tax Administration, 2014 0.999 0.22% Not Available N/A N/A
Single family dwelling units Chatham County Tax Administration Office, 2014; Durham County Tax Administration, 2000–2014; Orange County Tax Administration, 2014 0.994 0.50% Not Available N/A N/A
Multifamily dwelling units Chatham County Tax Administration Office, 2014; Durham County Tax Administration, 2000–2014; Orange County Tax Administration, 2014 0.997 0.43% Not Available N/A N/A
Single family property value Chatham County Tax Administration Office, 2014; Durham County Tax Administration, 2000–2014; Orange County Tax Administration, 2014 0.288 4.30% Not Available N/A N/A
Multifamily property value Chatham County Tax Administration Office, 2014; Durham County Tax Administration, 2000–2014; Orange County Tax Administration, 2014 0.592 3.00% Not Available N/A N/A
Nonresidential property value Chatham County Tax Administration Office, 2014; Durham County Tax Administration, 2000–2014; Orange County Tax Administration, 2014 0.267 39% Not Available N/A N/A
Total employment U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA, 2014), U.S. Census Bureau, 2015, and TRM v5 SE data 0.914 1.20% TRM v5 SE data 1 0.18%
Total earnings Woods & Poole Economics Inc., 2014 and TRM v5 SE data 0.994 1.30% Woods & Poole Economics Inc., 2014 and TRM v5 SE data 1 0.17%
VMT Not Available N/A N/A TRM v5 travel demand result shapefiles (TRM Service Bureau & TRM Team, 2012) 0.998 1.10%
a

Population projections were only available for a growth scenario that is comparable to the LRRD scenario, so these values are for the LRRD scenario results, not BAU