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. 2018 Feb 8;1:13. doi: 10.1038/s42003-018-0013-y

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© The Author(s) 2018

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 4 — Weather-driven risk model indicates increasingly conducive conditions for fungal pathogen growth over the past 25 years. a Mean leaf wetness fraction, 1990–2016, Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA55). Values are the fraction of hours during the summer when canopy surface moisture was above zero. b Mean canopy temperature, 1990–2016, JRA55. Values are canopy temperature during summer months when the JRA55 canopy moisture fraction was above zero. c Annual leaf wetness fraction, 1990–2016. Each point is the mean per pixel. The curve is a loess fit. d Annual mean hourly appressorium formations, 1990–2016. Each point is the mean per pixel, with the model assuming a new cohort of spores deposited in each hour. The black curve is a loess fit. The grey curve is the loess fit to the modeled mean hourly leaf penetrations, values of which were approximately one tenth of the appressorium formations. e Daily rainfall distributions, 2020 vs. 2050. Values represent summer days from 99 runs of the MarkSim daily weather generator for 17 CMIP GCMs, for a point near Cambridge. f Daily maximum temperature, 2020 vs. 2050. Values derived as in e