Table 2.

Likelihood (± 95% confidence interval) for each of four historical demographic scenarios, as depicted in Figure 3, for three gray seal breeding colonies and harbor seals by‐caught in the Northeast United States. For each sample set, demographic models were tested using datasets with and without a minor allele frequency (MAF) filter of 0.05. Error rates calculated as the probability of selecting the given scenario as most likely if it is incorrect

	Scenario 1		Scenario 2		Scenario 3		Scenario 4
	Likelihood (95% CI)	Error rate	Likelihood (95% CI)	Error rate	Likelihood (95% CI)	Error rate	Likelihood (95% CI)	Error rate
Without MAF
Gray seal
Gulf of St Lawrence	0.24 (0–1.07)	3.63	0 (0–0)	0.17	45.23 (44.23–46.23)	3.83	54.53 (53.53–55.53)	5.00
Sable Island	0.05 (0–0.52)	3.87	0 (0–0)	0.10	31.68 (30.69–32.69)	4.37	68.26 (67.26–69.26)	5.50
Muskeget Island	21.16 (20.05–22.26)	3.60	0 (0–0)	0.10	14.44 (13.62–15.26)	4.40	64.4 (63.32–65.59)	5.37
Harbor seal Northeast United States	0 (0–0.77)	3.63	0 (0–0)	0.10	43.97 (42.99–44.96)	3.37	56.02 (55.04–57.00)	4.90
With MAF
Gray seal
Gulf of St Lawrence	73.8 (72.93–74.67)	10.30	0 (0–0)	0.73	16.63 (15.90–17.37)	6.83	9.57 (8.99–10.15)	3.10
Sable Island	87.06 (86.40–87.72)	9.67	0 (0–0)	0.97	9.04 (8.47–9.60)	7.13	3.9 (3.52–4.28)	3.70
Muskeget Island	82.37 (81.62–83.12)	8.73	0 (0–0)	0.63	9.36 (8.79–9.94)	7.57	8.26 (7.72–8.81)	3.50
Harbor seal Northeast United States	0.07 (0–0.46)	8.03	0 (0–0)	0.70	27.02 (25.96–28.08)	7.27	72.91 (71.85–73.97)	4.43