Table 1.

Schematic zoning of the West African cocoa belt according to the vulnerability of cocoa farming to climate change, focus of adaptation measures, and key requirements for their implementation per zone^a

Zone	Current climatic suitability	Projected future climatic suitability	Current prevalence of cocoa farming	Focus of adaptation strategy	Key requirements	Regional examples
1a—intensification zone	Medium to high (>50 %)	Medium to high (>50 %)	(Co-)dominant crop in local farming systems	Sustainable intensification for increased yields and farmer income; diversification to buffer against market and environmental risks other than climate change	Technical assistance; input supplies including high-quality germplasm, fertilizer, pesticides (chemical or organic); affordable credit	Southern part of cocoa belts of Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire; parts of southern Cameroon
1b–expansion zone	Medium to high (>50 %)	Medium to high (>50 %)	Present but not dominant in local farming systems	Controlled expansion on existing agricultural and fallow land combined with forest conservation	Governance and monitoring systems ensuring land use planning and resource conservation; functioning supply chains for inputs and products; technical assistance; affordable credit	Southwestern part of Liberia with the exception of excessively humid coastal areas; parts of southern Cameroon
2–—diversification zone	Medium to high (>50 %)	Low to medium (20 to 50 %)	(Co-)dominant crop in local farming systems	Diversification of farming systems and supply chains with more heat and drought resistant crops; farm and landscape management for increased microclimatic protection (including shade use)	Functioning supply chains for a range of products including their inputs; legislation and administrative procedures encouraging farm trees; technical assistance; affordable credit	Northern parts of the cocoa belts of Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Cameroon; most of cocoa area of Nigeria, Togo and Guinea
3—conversion zone	Low to medium (mostly 20 to 50 %)	Very low (<20 %)	Variable, not dominant in local farming systems	Diversification as a step in the progressive transition to alternative crops and supply chains that are better adapted to future climate conditions	Functioning supply chains for alternative crops and their inputs; technical assistance; affordable credit	Northeastern part of the cocoa belt of Côte d’Ivoire; northern and northwestern parts of cocoa belt of Nigeria; northernmost parts of cocoa belts of Ghana and Sierra Leone

^aPercent suitability values refer to relative climatic suitability according to the Maxent model. For indicative location of adaptation zones see Fig. 1