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. 2018 Jul 22;21(Suppl Suppl 5):e25126. doi: 10.1002/jia2.25126

Figure 6.

Figure 6

Effect of changes in antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage or susceptibility to infection (due to pre‐exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) or increases in condom use) from 2017 to 2030 on overall projected HIV incidence per 1000‐person years in 2030. The plots show median and 95% credibility intervals of the projections. Scenarios included are additive on top of the previous scenarios from left to right, firstly including baseline projections, then projections with scale‐up of ART coverage in men who have sex with men (MSM) from 2017 such that 74% of MSM living with HIV are virally suppressed by 2020 (same as female sex workers (FSW)), reduce susceptibility of MSM by 33% and then 66% (similar to increase condom use or PrEP coverage in MSM), reducing susceptibility of FSW by 33%, scale‐up ART coverage in low risk such that 74% are virally suppressed by 2020 and reduce susceptibility of low‐risk groups by 33%.