Table 1.
Model parameter | FSW | Clients | Young MSM (<30 years) | Old MSM (≥30 years) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Size estimates (% of adult women or men) | 0.5% (0.3 to 0.9%) | 5.1% (1.8 to 12.1%) | 1.2% (0.8 to 2.3%) | |
HIV‐1 prevalence | 5.9% (1.8 to 10.0%) | 1.2% (0.5 to 2.4%) | 28.6% (19.8 to 37.5%)a | 37.0% (14.8 to 59.2%) |
Level of viral suppression in individuals living with HIV | 73.7% (60.9 to 84.2%) | NA | 35.4% (23.9 to 48.2%) | |
Frequency of partners per year | ||||
Commercial (FSW/Clients) | 516.4 (368.2 to 691.2)b | 69.6 (62.4 to 78.0) | – | – |
Main heterosexual | 0.58 (0.47 to 0.73) | 1.9 (1.3 to 2.6) | 0.88 (0.39 to 1.5) | 0.88 (0.39 to 1.5) |
Casual heterosexual | 0.96 (0.48 to 1.6) | 0.6 (0.15 to 1.4) | 2.3 (0.55 to 5.1) | 2.3 (0.55 to 5.1) |
Main (MSM sex) | – | – | 0.71 (0.59 to 0.83) | 0.71 (0.59 to 0.83) |
Casual (MSM sex) | – | – | 5.4 (2.5 to 9.2) | 4.8 (1.3 to 9.2) |
% of commercial sex acts that are analc | 4.1% (2.1 to 6.5%) | 5.1% (3.8 to 6.5%) | ||
Frequency of vaginal sex acts per year | ||||
Main heterosexual partners | 98.3 (78.5 to 117.5) | 97.3 (73.6 to 124.6) | 65.3 (56.2 to 74.4) | 65.3 (56.2 to 74.4) |
Casual heterosexual partners | 6.2 (4.2 to 8.2) | 3.8 (2.1 to 5.9) | 4.5 (2.6 to 6.4) | 4.5 (2.6 to 6.4) |
Frequency of anal sex acts per year | ||||
Main heterosexual partners | 9.9 (3.6 to 15.6) | 6.6 (3.4 to 11.1) | 5.2 (1.6 to 9.4) | 5.2 (1.6 to 9.4) |
Casual heterosexual partners | 0.49 (0.12 to 1.2) | 0.33 (0.097 to 0.75) | 0.52 (0.04 to 1.0) | 0.52 (0.04 to 1.0) |
Frequency of anal sex for men with men per year (MSM sex) | ||||
Main partnerships of MSM | – | – | 105.6 (91.0 to 120.6) | 105.6 (91.0 to 120.6) |
Casual partnerships of MSM | – | – | 7.6 (6.7 to 8.2) | 15.2 (13.2 to 16.4) |
NA denotes not available.
Alternative IBBA survey from 2014 suggests lower HIV prevalence of 13.3% (9.7 to 17.4%).
Uncertainty range widened based on different estimates from the 2016 survey and earlier surveys.
The rest are vaginal.