TABLE 2.
Model inputs and baseline estimates for probabilities, lengths of stay, and costs
| Input | Mean base-case value (range) | Type of distribution (range or mean [SD]) | Reference(s) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mortality probabilities | |||
| mRDT | 0.11 (0.08–0.14) | Uniform (0.08–0.14) | 9, 17–25, 34, 36–45 |
| Conventional laboratory methods | 0.16 (0.12–0.19) | Uniform (0.12–0.19) | 9, 17–25, 34, 36–45 |
| mRDT with ASP (A) | 0.11 (0.08–0.15) | Uniform (0.08–0.15) | 9, 17–23, 25, 34, 36, 37, 39–42, 44, 45 |
| mRDT without ASP (B) | 0.10 (0.07–0.14) | Uniform (0.07–0.14) | 24, 38, 43 |
| Conventional laboratory methods with ASP (C) | 0.16 (0.12–0.20) | Uniform (0.12–0.20) | 9, 17–23, 25, 34, 36, 37, 39–42, 44, 45 |
| Conventional laboratory methods without ASP (D) | 0.15 (0.11–0.19) | Uniform (0.11–0.19) | 24, 38, 43 |
| PCR with ASP (A1) | 0.12 (0.05–0.22) | Uniform (0.05–0.22) | 9, 18, 25, 44 |
| MALDI-TOF analysis with ASP (A2) | 0.08 (0.04–0.12) | Uniform (0.04–0.12) | 17, 23, 37, 39 |
| PNA-FISH with ASP (A3) | 0.15 (0.03–0.33) | Uniform (0.03–0.33) | 20-22, 36 |
| BC-GP with ASP (A4) | 0.16 (0.04–0.33) | Uniform (0.04–0.33) | 19, 40, 45 |
| BC-GN with ASP (A5) | 0.08 (0.04–0.12) | Uniform (0.04–0.12) | 34, 41, 42 |
| PCR without ASP (B1) | 0.12 (0.07–0.18) | Uniform (0.07–0.18) | 38, 43 |
| PNA-FISH without ASP (B2) | 0.08 (0.03–0.15) | Uniform (0.03–0.15) | 24 |
| Length of stay (days) | |||
| mRDT | 11.58 (9.44–13.72) | Gamma (11.58 [0.71]) | 17–19, 22, 23, 34, 37, 38, 40, 55 |
| Conventional laboratory methods | 14.02 (11.23–16.80) | Gamma (14.02 [0.93]) | 17–19, 22, 23, 34, 37, 38, 40, 55 |
| mRDT with ASP (A) | 9.89 (8.04–11.74) | Gamma (9.89 [0.62]) | 17–19, 22, 23, 34, 37, 40 |
| mRDT without ASP (B) | 18.37 (13.79–22.97) | Gamma (18.37 [1.53]) | 38, 55 |
| Conventional laboratory methods with ASP (C) | 13.31 (10.42–16.19) | Gamma (13.31 [0.96]) | 17–19, 22, 23, 34, 37, 40 |
| Conventional laboratory methods without ASP (D) | 17.98 (8.99–35.96) | Gamma (17.89 [4.50]) | 38, 55 |
| PCR with ASP (A1) | 15.30 (12.25–18.35) | Gamma (15.30 [1.02]) | 18 |
| MALDI-TOF analysis with ASP (A2) | 8.97 (5.84–12.09) | Gamma (8.97 [1.04]) | 23, 28, 37 |
| PNA-FISH with ASP (A3) | 17.00 (9.86–24.14) | Gamma (17.00 [2.38]) | 22 |
| BC-GP with ASP (A4) | 7.82 (6.90–8.75) | Gamma (7.82 [0.31]) | 19, 40 |
| BC-GN with ASP (A5) | 10.67 (7.46–13.88) | Gamma (10.67 [1.07]) | 34 |
| PCR without ASP (B) | 15.20 (8.83–21.57) | Gamma (15.20 [2.12]) | 38 |
| PNA-FISH without ASP (B2) | 18.70 (15.47–21.93) | Gamma (18.70 [1.0]) | 55 |
| Costs (US$) | |||
| Blood culture | 178.05 (89.03–356.10) | Gamma (178.05 [44.51]) | 65 |
| PCR | 67.90 (33.95–135.80) | Gamma (67.90 [16.98]) | 68 |
| BC-GP | 99.61 (49.81–199.22) | Gamma (99.61 [24.90]) | 69 |
| BC-GN | 105.89 (52.95–211.78) | Gamma (105.89 [26.47]) | 42 |
| PNA-FISH | 139.05 (69.53–278.10) | Gamma (139.05 [34.76]) | 70 |
| MALDI-TOF analysis | 45.99 (23.00–91.98) | Gamma (45.99 [11.50]) | 71 |
| Conventional laboratory methods | 5.09 (2.55–10.18) | Gamma (5.09 [1.27]) | 30 |
| mRDT | 91.69 (45.85–183.38) | Gamma (91.69 [22.92]) | 42, 68–71 |
| ASP per patient | 179.29 (89.65–358.58) | Gamma (179.29 [44.82]) | 31 |
| In-patient hospitalization per day for Rhode Island, 2015 | 3,080.80 (1,540.40–6,161.60) | Gamma (3,080.80 [770.20]) | 32 |