Table 3.
Mixed models of the association between diastolic blood pressure slope (Years 0–10) or one-time DBP (at Year 10) for the outcome of subsequent renal function decline.
| ΔeGFR, in mL/min/1.73m2 per year | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Predictor | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 |
| Approach 1a (Primary Analysis) | |||
| Model incorporating BP slope (Years 0–10) only | |||
| ΔDBP (per 10-mmHg increase over 5 years) | −0.87 (−1.26, −0.48) | −0.80 (−1.21, −0.40) | −0.79 (−1.22, −0.36) |
| Model incorporating one-time BP at Year 10 only | |||
| Year-10 observed DBP (per 10-mmHg higher) | −0.08 (−0.13, −0.04) | −0.07 (−0.12, −0.03) | −0.07 (−0.12, −0.03) |
| Model incorporating one-time and change in BP | |||
| ΔDBP (per 10-mm Hg increase over 5 years) after accounting for Year-10 observed DBP | −0.61 (−1.19, −0.03) | −0.65 (−1.23, −0.07) | −0.63 (−1.25, −0.01) |
| Year-10 observed DBP (per 10 mm Hg higher) | −0.04 (−0.1, 0.02) | −0.02 (−0.09, 0.04) | −0.02 (−0.09, 0.04) |
| Approach 2b (Time-updated Analysis) | |||
| Model incorporating BP slope (Years 0–10 or 5–15) only | |||
| ΔDBP (per 10-mmHg increase over 5 years) | −0.88 (−1.26, −0.51) | −0.84 (−1.22, −0.46) | −0.83 (−1.23, −0.42) |
| Model incorporating one-time BP only | |||
| Observed DBP at start of interval* (per 10-mm Hg higher) | −0.13 (−0.18, −0.09) | −0.12 (−0.17, −0.07) | −0.12 (−0.1, −0.07) |
| Model incorporating one-time and change in BP | |||
| ΔDBP (per 10-mm Hg increase over 5 years) after accounting for Year-10 observed DBP | −0.26 (−0.80, 0.27) | −0.39 (−0.94, 0.17) | −0.35 (−0.94, 0.24) |
| Year-10 observed DBP (per 10-mm Hg higher) | −0.11 (−0.17, −0.04) | −0.08 (−0.15, −0.01) | −0.08 (−0.16, −0.01) |
eGFRcys, cystatin C–based estimated glomular filtration rate; DBP, diastolic blood pressure; BP, blood pressure
Approach 1: BP change estimated from best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP) over years 0–10 as fixed covariate in linear mixed models for repeated eGFRcys at years 10, 15, and 20 as outcome. No. of patients in Model 1, 2, and 3 are 3425, 3423, and 3081, respectively.
Approach 2: Best linear unbiased predictor BP changes over years 0–10 and 10–15 as time-updated covariates in linear mixed models for changes in eGFRcys over years 10–15 and 15–20. No. of patients in Model 1, 2, and 3 are 3130, 3129, and 2818, respectively.
Model 1: Adjusted for age, sex, and race
Model 2: Model 1 + education, income, employment, smoking, BMI, diabetes, and anti-hypertensive medication use
Model 3: Model 2, with additional adjustment for albuminuria
Start at the interval is either Year 10 or Year 15 BP measurements