Table 3.
Biomarker panel performance in the EDRN reference set
| Assay | CA 19‐9 |
Migration signature + CA 19‐9 |
Accuracy P* | AUC P† | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUC (95% CI) | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | Accuracy (95% CI) | AUC (95% CI) | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | Accuracy (95% CI) | |||
| Full cohort after adjusting for age and diabetes status | ||||||||||
| Stage IA/IB/IIA (n = 55) vs healthy (n = 61) | 0.74 (0.64 to 0.84) | 0.71 (0.58 to 0.82) | 0.61 (0.48 to 0.74) | 0.66 (0.57 to 0.74) | 0.79 (0.70 to 0.87) | 0.73 (0.6 to 0.84) | 0.82 (0.72 to 0.90) | 0.77 (0.70 to 0.85) | <.001 | .095 |
| Stage IA/IB/IIA (n = 55) vs CP (n = 62) | 0.69 (0.58 to 0.79) | 0.71 (0.58 to 0.82) | 0.44 (0.31 to 0.57) | 0.57 (0.48 to 0.66) | 0.75 (0.65 to 0.84) | 0.73 (0.62 to 0.84) | 0.71 (0.60 to 0.81) | 0.72 (0.64 to 0.80) | <.001 | .045 |
| Subcohort without history of diabetes and pancreatitis | ||||||||||
| Stage IA/IB/IIA (n = 30) vs healthy (n = 50) | 0.78 (0.66 to 0.89) | 0.7 (0.53 to 0.87) | 0.6 (0.46 to 0.72) | 0.65 (0.55 to 0.75) | 0.87 (0.77 to 0.95) | 0.8 (0.63 to 0.93) | 0.84 (0.74 to 0.94) | 0.82 (0.73 to 0.91) | <.001 | .07 |
| Full cohort after adjusting for age and diabetes status | ||||||||||
| Stage IIB (n = 42) vs healthy (n = 61) | 0.83 (0.74 to 0.91) | 0.81 (0.69 to 0.93) | 0.61 (0.48 to 0.72) | 0.71 (0.62 to 0.79) | 0.87 (0.80 to 0.94) | 0.76 (0.64 to 0.88) | 0.82 (0.72 to 0.90) | 0.79 (0.71 to 0.87) | .03 | .18 |
| Stage IIB (n = 42) vs CP (n = 62) | 0.77 (0.67 to 0.86) | 0.81 (0.69 to 0.93) | 0.44 (0.32 to 0.57) | 0.62 (0.54 to 0.71) | 0.83 (0.74 to 0.91) | 0.76 (0.62 to 0.88) | 0.71 (0.60 to 0.82) | 0.74 (0.65 to 0.82) | .009 | .05 |
| Subcohort without history of diabetes and pancreatitis | ||||||||||
| Stage IIB (n = 22) vs healthy (n = 50) | 0.88 (0.77 to 0.96) | 0.91 (0.77 to 1) | 0.6 (0.46 to 0.74) | 0.76 (0.66 to 0.83) | 0.93 (0.87 to 0.98) | 0.82 (0.64 to 0.96) | 0.84 (0.74 to 0.94) | 0.83 (0.73 to 0.92) | .08 | .22 |
| Full cohort after adjusting for age and diabetes status | ||||||||||
| All cancer (n = 98) vs healthy (n = 61) | 0.78 (0.71 to 0.85) | 0.76 (0.66 to 0.84) | 0.61 (0.48 to 0.72) | 0.68 (0.60 to 0.75) | 0.83 (0.76 to 0.89) | 0.75 (0.65 to 0.83) | 0.82 (0.71 to 0.90) | 0.78 (0.72 to 0.84) | .001 | .045 |
| All cancer (n = 98) vs CP (n = 62) | 0.73 (0.64 to 0.80) | 0.76 (0.66 to 0.84) | 0.44 (0.32 to 0.55) | 0.60 (0.52 to 0.67) | 0.78 (0.71 to 0.85) | 0.75 (0.65 to 0.83) | 0.71 (0.60 to 0.82) | 0.73 (0.65 to 0.79) | <.001 | .01 |
| Subcohort without history of diabetes and pancreatitis | ||||||||||
| All cancer (n = 52) vs healthy (n = 50) | 0.82 (0.73 to 0.90) | 0.79 (0.67 to 0.89) | 0.6 (0.46 to 0.74) | 0.69 (0.61 to 0.77) | 0.89 (0.82 to 0.95) | 0.81 (0.69 to 0.90) | 0.84 (0.72 to 0.94) | 0.82 (0.75 to 0.89) | <.001 | .03 |
*
Two-sided P value based on z test for equivalence in accuracy between CA 19‐9 and migration signature + CA 19‐9 using bootstrap standard error estimate. AUC = area under the curve; CI = confidence interval; CP = chronic pancreatitis; ERDN = National Cancer Institute Early Detection Research Network.
†
Two-sided P value based on z test for equivalence in AUC between CA19‐9 and migration signature + CA19‐9 using bootstrap standard error estimate.