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. 2018 Jul 19;8(7):e019242. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2017-019242

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© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2018. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

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Trend in mortality rate and EWMI over the year period observed and forecast for the next 11 years. There is a steady decline in mortality rate with a significant trend for reduction in AMI-associated mortality. The forecast for the next 11-year period shows a continued decline. The forecast for the EWMI shows no change. AMI, acute myocardial infarction; EWMI, Excess Winter Mortality Index.