Table 2.

Discriminative ability for all-cause dementia

Prediction model	C-statistics at various follow-up horizons (95% CI)
	2 years n/N = 63/6667	5 years n/N = 233/6667	10 years n/N = 515/6667	15 years n/N = 847/6667
CAIDE	0.49 (0.42–0.56)	0.54 (0.50–0.58)	0.55 (0.53–0.58)	0.55 (0.53–0.57)
Age only	NA	NA	NA	NA
Without age	0.49 (0.42–0.56)	0.54 (0.50–0.58)	0.55 (0.53–0.58)	0.55 (0.53–0.57)
BDSI	0.83 (0.75–0.90)	0.80 (0.76–0.84)	0.78 (0.76–0.81)	0.76 (0.74–0.78)
Age only	0.83 (0.76–0.90)	0.81 (0.78–0.85)	0.81 (0.78–0.83)	0.79 (0.77–0.81)
Without age	0.64 (0.57–0.71)	0.63 (0.59–0.66)	0.60 (0.58–0.63)	0.59 (0.57–0.61)
ANU-ADRI	0.81 (0.77–0.86)	0.78 (0.76–0.81)	0.75 (0.74–0.77)	0.70 (0.69–0.72)
Age only	0.83 (0.79–0.87)	0.80 (0.77–0.82)	0.77 (0.75–0.79)	0.72 (0.71–0.74)
Without age	0.56 (0.49–0.64)	0.51 (0.47–0.55)	0.52 (0.49–0.54)	0.51 (0.49–0.53)
DRS	0.84 (0.77–0.92)	0.82 (0.78–0.86)	0.81 (0.78–0.83)	0.79 (0.77–0.81)
Age only	0.83 (0.76–0.90)	0.81 (0.78–0.85)	0.81 (0.78–0.83)	0.79 (0.77–0.81)
Without age	0.63 (0.56–0.70)	0.58 (0.54–0.62)	0.57 (0.55–0.60)	0.55 (0.53–0.57)

CI confidence interval, n number of cases, N number of people at risk, CAIDE cardiovascular risk factors, aging, and dementia study, NA not applicable, BDSI brief dementia screening indicator, ANU-ADRI Australian National University Alzheimer’s Disease Risk Index and, DRS dementia risk score