Table 3.
Standardized 10-Year Risk of Mortality According to Whether Death Was Related to Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromea, Among 3,882 Eligibleb Patients Who Entered Treatment at 8 Clinical Sites Between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2014, Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems, United States
| Analysis Type and Treatment Arm | Sensitivity | Specificity | AIDS-Related Mortality | Non–AIDS-Related Mortality | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Year Risk (%) | Risk Ratio | 95% CI | Risk Difference | 95% CI | 10-year Risk (%) | Risk Ratio | 95% CI | Risk Difference | 95% CI | |||
| Standard analysis | ||||||||||||
| No intervention | 1.00 | 1.00 | 3.67 | 8.47 | ||||||||
| Immediate ART | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.11 | 1.00 | Referent | 0 | Referent | 8.05 | 1.00 | Referent | 0 | Referent |
| Delayed ART | 1.00 | 1.00 | 3.64 | 1.73 | 1.17, 2.54 | 1.53 | 0.62, 2.45 | 8.43 | 1.05 | 0.86, 1.27 | 0.38 | −1.19, 1.95 |
| Sensitivity analyses | ||||||||||||
| Scenario 1 | ||||||||||||
| No intervention | 1.00 | 0.95 | 3.32 | 8.74 | ||||||||
| Immediate ART | 1.00 | 0.95 | 1.85 | 1.00 | Referent | 0 | Referent | 8.30 | 1.00 | Referent | 0 | Referent |
| Delayed ART | 1.00 | 0.95 | 3.27 | 1.76 | 1.12, 2.77 | 1.41 | 0.43, 2.40 | 8.75 | 1.06 | 0.88, 1.28 | 0.50 | −1.08, 2.07 |
| Scenario 2 | ||||||||||||
| No intervention | 1.00 | 0.90 | 3.13 | 9.13 | ||||||||
| Immediate ART | 1.00 | 0.90 | 1.59 | 1.00 | Referent | 0 | Referent | 8.57 | 1.00 | Referent | 0 | Referent |
| Delayed ART | 1.00 | 0.90 | 3.05 | 1.91 | 1.04, 3.51 | 1.46 | 0.34, 2.57 | 9.19 | 1.05 | 0.87, 1.27 | 0.45 | −1.14, 2.05 |
| Scenario 3 | ||||||||||||
| No intervention | 0.95 | 0.90 | 3.25 | 8.96 | ||||||||
| Immediate ART | 0.95 | 0.90 | 1.65 | 1.00 | Referent | 0 | Referent | 8.49 | 1.00 | Referent | 0 | Referent |
| Delayed ART | 0.95 | 0.90 | 3.12 | 1.89 | 1.13, 3.14 | 1.47 | 0.45, 2.48 | 9.08 | 1.05 | 0.86, 1.29 | 0.44 | −1.10, 1.99 |
| Scenario 4 | ||||||||||||
| No intervention | 0.90 | 0.95 | 3.60 | 8.55 | ||||||||
| Immediate ART | 0.90 | 0.95 | 1.93 | 1.00 | Referent | 0 | Referent | 8.27 | 1.00 | Referent | 0 | Referent |
| Delayed ART | 0.90 | 0.95 | 3.59 | 1.86 | 1.19, 2.91 | 1.66 | 0.64, 2.68 | 8.44 | 1.03 | 0.85, 1.26 | 0.25 | −1.32, 1.81 |
| Scenario 5 | ||||||||||||
| No intervention | 0.90 | 0.90 | 3.31 | 8.85 | ||||||||
| Immediate ART | 0.90 | 0.90 | 1.70 | 1.00 | Referent | 0 | Referent | 8.50 | 1.00 | Referent | 0 | Referent |
| Delayed ART | 0.90 | 0.90 | 3.27 | 1.93 | 1.18, 3.14 | 1.57 | 0.58, 2.57 | 9.04 | 1.04 | 0.85, 1.27 | 0.34 | −1.19, 1.86 |
Abbreviations: AIDS, acquired immune deficiency syndrome; ART, antiretroviral therapy; CI, confidence interval.
a Participants could have received no intervention, immediate ART, or delayed ART. In the delayed group, patients initiated ART at their first visit at which CD4 cell count was <350 cells/mm3 or the patient was diagnosed with AIDS.
b Patients who entered care with a CD4 cell count over 500 cells/mm3 were eligible and were followed for death for up to 10 years.