. 2018 Apr 20;126(4):047010. doi: 10.1289/EHP3062

Table 2.

Projected percentage change (and 95% eCI) in hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) incidence among children 0–14 y old due to climate change (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios) by region and decade relative to baseline estimates for 2009–2014, holding population sizes and temperature-HFMD associations constant over time

Region	RCP 4.5 (percentage change and 95% eCI)			RCP 8.5 (percentage change and 95% eCI)
Region	2030s	2050s	2090s	2030s	2050s	2090s
Northeast	5.4 ( $- 1.0$ , 11.8)	9.5 (0.2, 18.8)	13.1 (1.0, 25.3)	6.3 (1.4, 11.1)	14.2 (6.5, 22.0)	33.0 (17.2, 48.7)
Inner Mongolia	6.0 ( $- 4.9$ , 16.9)	10.8 ( $- 3.6$ , 25.2)	14.9 ( $- 3.8$ , 33.7)	7.6 ( $- 3.3$ , 18.6)	16.8 ( $- 1.7$ , 35.2)	36.5 ( $- 3.0$ , 76.1)
North	2.3 ( $- 1.7$ , 6.4)	4.2 ( $- 1.0$ , 9.4)	5.8 ( $- 1.9$ , 13.6)	3.1 ( $- 0.9$ , 7.2)	6.7 ( $- 0.6$ , 14.0)	13.4 ( $- 2.0$ , 28.8)
Northwest	2.0 ( $- 4.2$ , 8.2)	4.3 ( $- 4.1$ , 12.7)	5.5 ( $- 5.3$ , 16.2)	3.2 ( $- 3.1$ , 9.4)	6.4 ( $- 4.9$ , 17.7)	11.9 ( $- 10.4$ , 34.2)
East	0.2 ( $- 6.9$ , 7.3)	0.0 ( $- 11.7$ , 11.6)	$- 0.3$ ( $- 16.2$ , 15.6)	0.0 ( $- 8.3$ , 8.3)	$- 0.3$ ( $- 16.8$ , 16.1)	$- 4.0$ ( $- 36.7$ , 28.6)
Central Region	$- 1.0$ ( $- 5.4$ , 3.4)	$- 2.1$ ( $- 8.6$ , 4.4)	$- 3.0$ ( $- 11.7$ , 5.7)	$- 1.2$ ( $- 6.2$ , 3.7)	$- 3.3$ ( $- 12.3$ , 5.8)	$- 8.9$ ( $- 26.4$ , 8.6)
Qingzang	3.1 ( $- 7.5$ , 13.7)	5.2 ( $- 9.3$ , 19.6)	6.9 ( $- 10.8$ , 24.5)	4.1 ( $- 7.0$ , 15.1)	7.9 ( $- 11.1$ , 26.9)	14.4 ( $- 21.0$ , 49.7)
Southwest	0.6 ( $- 6.1$ , 7.3)	0.8 ( $- 9.9$ , 11.6)	0.7 ( $- 14.6$ , 16.0)	0.6 ( $- 7.0$ , 8.2)	1.0 ( $- 14.9$ , 16.9)	$- 0.8$ ( $- 35.5$ , 33.9)
South	1.7 ( $- 4.2$ , 7.6)	2.3 ( $- 8.1$ , 12.7)	2.8 ( $- 12.0$ , 17.5)	1.6 ( $- 5.0$ , 8.2)	2.8 ( $- 12.5$ , 18.1)	$- 0.1$ ( $- 34.8$ , 34.5)
Overall	1.5 ( $- 6.0$ , 9.1)	2.5 ( $- 9.7$ , 14.8)	3.2 ( $- 13.5$ , 20.0)	1.8 ( $- 6.7$ , 10.3)	3.6 ( $- 13.8$ , 21.1)	5.3 ( $- 33.3$ , 44.0)

Note: Pooled province level temperature-HFMD associations were used for projecting, and long-term trend and seasonality, relative humidity, day of the week, holidays (public holidays and summer and winter school holidays), and autocorrelations were controlled for in the residuals. eCI, empirical confidence interval; RCP, Representative Concentration Pathway.