Table 4.
Model-predicted five-year decline in mean Modified Mini-Mental State Examination (3MSE) score and Digit Symbol Substitution Test (DSST) score, by age, incident heart failure (HF), and atrial fibrillation (AF) status
| Predicted five-year decline (95% confidence interval) * | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heart failure | From age 70 to age 75 |
From age 75 to age 80 |
From age 80 to age 85 |
From age 85 to age 90 |
| 3MSE by age and HF; in the presence of AF† | ||||
| No HF diagnosed before or during five-year interval | 0.0 (−0.9, 0.8) | 3.2 (2.7, 3.7) | 6.4 (5.7, 7.2) | 9.7 (8.4, 10.9) |
| Incident HF diagnosed at beginning of five-year interval | 3.8 (0.5, 7.1) | 7.2 (5.0, 9.3) | 10.8 (7.8, 13.8) | 14.7 (9.2, 20.1) |
| Difference (incident HF minus no HF)‡ | 3.8 (0.4, 7.3) | 4.0 (1.8, 6.2) | 4.4 (1.3, 7.4) | 5.0 (−0.5, 10.5) |
| 3MSE by age and HF; in the absence of AF† | ||||
| No HF diagnosed before or during five-year interval | 0.3 (0.1, 0.6) | 3.0 (2.7, 3.3) | 5.7 (5.2, 6.2) | 8.4 (7.6, 9.1) |
| Incident HF diagnosed at beginning of five-year interval | 2.4 (−0.3, 5.1) | 5.2 (3.4, 7.0) | 9.4 (7.3, 11.6) | 15.2 (11.9, 18.4) |
| Difference (incident HF minus no HF)‡ | 2.1 (−0.6, 4.8) | 2.2 (0.3, 4.0) | 3.7 (1.6, 5.9) | 6.8 (3.6, 10.0) |
| DSST by age and HF; in the presence of AF§ | ||||
| No HF diagnosed before or during five-year interval | 1.5 (0.6, 2.4) | 2.9 (2.4, 3.4) | 4.3 (3.7, 4.9) | 5.7 (4.7, 6.8) |
| Incident HF diagnosed at beginning of five-year interval | 4.9 (1.3, 8.5) | 5.3 (3.2, 7.4) | 7.1 (4.5, 9.7) | 10.3 (6.4, 14.1) |
| Difference (incident HF minus no HF)|| | 3.4 (−0.3, 7.1) | 2.4 (0.2, 4.6) | 2.8 (0.2, 5.4) | 4.6 (0.6, 8.5) |
| DSST by age and HF; in the absence of AF§ | ||||
| No HF diagnosed before or during five-year interval | 1.0 (0.8, 1.2) | 2.8 (2.6, 3.0) | 4.7 (4.4, 5.0) | 6.6 (6.1, 7.0) |
| Incident HF diagnosed at beginning of five-year interval | 1.5 (−1.5, 4.5) | 3.4 (1.5, 5.2) | 5.4 (3.1, 7.6) | 7.5 (3.6, 11.5) |
| Difference (incident HF minus no HF)|| | 0.6 (−2.5, 3.6) | 0.5 (−1.3, 2.4) | 0.7 (−1.6, 2.9) | 1.0 (−3.0, 4.9) |
Adjusted for birth year, sex, race, education, cigarette smoking, alcohol use, beta-blocker use, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor use, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anemia, diabetes, hypertension, and coronary heart disease.
F test P = 0.027 for whether 3MSE trajectories differed overall by AF status.
F test P = 0.084 for whether the difference in 3MSE trajectory by incident HF further differed by AF status.
F test P = 0.339 for whether DSST trajectories differed overall by AF status.
F test P = 0.505 for whether the difference in DSST trajectory by incident HF further differed by AF status.