Table 1.

Cumulative log scores and mean errors of the real-time forecast variant for week 48 through week 18 forecasts at the national and 10 HHS regions during the 2016–2017 season. One-week-ahead is not displayed as all three methods used nowcasts, and the scores/errors were thus identical. For each target, the best score and lowest error are in italics.

	probabilistic forecasts—log scores			point forecasts—mean errors
target	DYN	STAT	SE	DYN	STAT	SE
season onset	−134	−115	−129	0.884	0.523	0.516
season peak week	−226	−226	−231	1.581	1.604	1.513
season peak intensity	−348	−311	−311	0.165	0.135	0.129
two-week-ahead	−252	−288	−266	0.204	0.195	0.193
three-week-ahead	−311	−322	−318	0.251	0.228	0.228
four-week-ahead	−344	−340	−329	0.290	0.249	0.254