Table 3.
Cumulative probabilistic forecast scores for all variants. The value in parentheses is the percentage difference relative to the Baseline score. Positive numbers in parentheses indicate improved performance and vice versa.
| method | target | Baseline | Real-time | Baseline without nowcast | Baseline with post-processing | Stable ILI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DYN | season onset | −135 | −134(1) | −145(−7) | −136(−1) | −125(7) |
| season peak week | −278 | −226(19) | −276(1) | −258(7) | −250(10) | |
| season peak intensity | −403 | −348(14) | −413(−3) | −367(9) | −375(7) | |
| one-week-ahead | −163 | −161(1) | −205(−25) | −172(−5) | −127(22) | |
| two-week-ahead | −241 | −252(−4) | −269(−12) | −240(0) | −219(9) | |
| three-week-ahead | −296 | −311(−5) | −330(−11) | −298(−1) | −278(6) | |
| four-week-ahead | −333 | −344(−3) | −362(−9) | −335(0) | −320(4) | |
| overall | −1849 | −1776(4) | −1999(−8) | −1805(2) | −1693(8) | |
| STAT | season onset | −95 | −115(−21) | −94(1) | −102(−7) | −85(11) |
| season peak week | −244 | −226(7) | −240(2) | −229(6) | −209(14) | |
| season peak intensity | −350 | −311(11) | −343(2) | −301(14) | −347(1) | |
| one-week-ahead | −163 | −163(0) | −220(−35) | −165(−1) | −127(22) | |
| two-week-ahead | −273 | −288(−5) | −275(−1) | −266(2) | −288(−6) | |
| three-week-ahead | −298 | −322(−8) | −308(−3) | −293(2) | −309(−4) | |
| four-week-ahead | −331 | −340(−3) | −326(1) | −325(2) | −327(1) | |
| overall | −1754 | −1765(−1) | −1806(−3) | −1680(4) | −1692(3) | |
| SE | season onset | −118 | −129(−9) | −116(2) | −125(−5) | −103(13) |
| season peak week | −259 | −231(11) | −262(−1) | −264(−2) | −257(1) | |
| season peak intensity | −339 | −311(8) | −324(5) | −299(12) | −336(1) | |
| one-week-ahead | −163 | −161(2) | −160(2) | −165(−1) | −127(22) | |
| two-week-ahead | −233 | −266(−14) | −235(−1) | −229(2) | −222(5) | |
| three-week-ahead | −280 | −318(−14) | −293(−5) | −275(2) | −275(2) | |
| four-week-ahead | −301 | −329(−9) | −305(−1) | −300(0) | −300(0) | |
| overall | −1694 | −1744(−3) | −1695(0) | −1657(2) | −1619(4) |