Table 3.
Discrimination Performance of Complete and Simplified Risk Score
| Complete Risk Scorea | Simplified Risk Scoreb | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cohort | Derivation | Validation | Overallc | Derivation | Validation | Overallc |
| Proportion of women with high risk scored | ||||||
| All women | 11% | 9% | 10% | 16% | 15% | 16% |
| HIV seroconverters | 64% | 36% | 52% | 64% | 45% | 56% |
| Discrimination performance | ||||||
| AUC (95% CI) | 0.84 (.72–.95) | 0.73 (.57–.90) | 0.74 (.62–.87) | 0.78 (.65–.92) | 0.72 (.58–.87) | 0.76 (.67–.85) |
| Brier score | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.15 |
Abbreviations: AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; CI, confidence interval; HIV, human immunodeficiency virus.
aComplete risk score includes having a male partner with unknown HIV status, lifetime number of sexual partners, syphilis, bacterial vaginosis (BV), and vaginal candidiasis.
bSimplified risk score excludes bacterial vaginosis and vaginal candidiasis.
cAUC for the overall cohort was calculated as the average AUC of 10 subsets of data randomly selected from the overall cohort.
dHigh risk scores defined as score >8 for the complete risk score and >6 for the simplified risk score excluding BV and candidiasis based on optimal cut-points in receiver operating characteristic analysis.