Table 4.
Risk matrix 1.
| Objective Risk Matrix | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exposure Consideration | Probability of Rabies Based on Clinical Categorization of Bite (Babes) | Limited Surveillance Program Capacity | Advanced Surveillance Program Capacity | |||||||
| Dog Symptomatic | Dog Dead At Follow-up | Dog Bite Was Not Provoked | Stray Dog | Dog Bit Multiple People | Dog Not Vaccinated | Dog Healthy and Available for Quarantine | Dog Healthy 10 Days Post-Bite | Tested Negative | ||
| Bite to head/neck | 45.00% | 27.99% | 17.87% | 6.75% | 6.26% | 4.77% | 2.12% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Multiple severe bite wounds | 27.50% | 17.11% | 10.92% | 4.13% | 3.82% | 2.92% | 1.29% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Bites to young children | 27.50% | 17.11% | 10.92% | 4.13% | 3.82% | 2.92% | 1.29% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Bites to extremities | 5.00% | 3.11% | 1.99% | 0.75% | 0.70% | 0.53% | 0.24% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Minor bites (no break in skin) | 1.00% | 0.62% | 0.40% | 0.15% | 0.14% | 0.11% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Category II | 1.00% | 0.62% | 0.40% | 0.15% | 0.14% | 0.11% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Medley et al. probability of rabies 2 | 62.20% | 39.70% | 15.00% | 13.90% | 10.60% | 4.70% | 0.08% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
1 Risk levels illustrated by Green (Low), Yellow/Orange (Moderate), and Red (High). 2 Probability of rabies as calculated from the data sets used in this study. “Dog Bite Was Not Provoked” was a best guess estimate at 15%.