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(a) Under-reporting had negligible effect on the ability of the moving window coefficient of variation to respond to the approach to the vaccination threshold. (b) A hyperbolic approximation was used to forecast the time the vaccination threshold would be reached. The estimated crossing time in 1000 simulations (boxplots) was on average slightly earlier than the true time of year 381 (horizontal dashed line). Under-reporting had little effect on the precision or bias of predictions.
