Table 2.
Diagnostic Performance of Confirmed and Unconfirmed Definitions of Undiagnosed Diabetes at ARIC Study Visit 2 (1990–1992) to Identify Cases of Diagnosed Diabetes at 5, 10, and 15 Years of Follow-up (n = 12 199)*
| Diabetes Status During Follow-up, n | Diagnostic Performance | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| ||||||
| Developed Diagnosed Diabetes | No Diagnosed Diabetes | Sensitivity (95% CI), % | Specificity (95% CI), % | Positive Predictive Value (95% CI), % | Negative Predictive Value (95% CI), % | |
| 5 y | ||||||
| Confirmed undiagnosed diabetes | ||||||
|
| ||||||
| Yes | 151 | 229 | 54.9 (48.8–60.9) | 98.1 (97.8–98.3) | 39.7 (34.8–44.9) | 99.0 (98.8–99.1) |
|
| ||||||
| No | 124 | 11 695 | – | – | – | – |
| Unconfirmed and confirmed undiagnosed diabetes | ||||||
|
| ||||||
| Yes | 205 | 770 | 74.5 (69.0–79.6) | 93.5 (93.1–94.0) | 21.0 (18.5–23.7) | 99.4 (99.2–99.5) |
|
| ||||||
| No | 70 | 11 154 | – | – | – | – |
| 10 y | ||||||
| Confirmed undiagnosed diabetes | ||||||
|
| ||||||
| Yes | 318 | 62 | 22.9 (20.7–25.2) | 99.4 (99.3–99.6) | 83.7 (79.6–87.3) | 90.9 (90.4–91.4) |
|
| ||||||
| No | 1073 | 10 746 | – | – | – | – |
| Unconfirmed and confirmed undiagnosed diabetes | ||||||
|
| ||||||
| Yes | 571 | 404 | 41.0 (38.4–43.7) | 96.3 (95.9–96.6) | 58.6 (55.4–61.7) | 92.7 (92.2–93.2) |
|
| ||||||
| No | 820 | 10 404 | – | – | – | – |
| 15 y | ||||||
| Confirmed undiagnosed diabetes | ||||||
|
| ||||||
| Yes | 337 | 43 | 13.5 (12.2–14.9) | 99.6 (99.4–99.7) | 88.7 (85.1–91.7) | 81.8 (81.1–82.5) |
|
| ||||||
| No | 2153 | 9666 | – | – | – | – |
| Unconfirmed and confirmed undiagnosed diabetes | ||||||
|
| ||||||
| Yes | 693 | 282 | 27.8 (26.1–29.6) | 97.1 (96.7–97.4) | 71.1 (68.1–73.9) | 84.0 (83.3–84.7) |
|
| ||||||
| No | 1797 | 9427 | – | – | – | – |
ARIC = Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities; HbA1c = hemoglobin A1c.
*
Unconfirmed undiagnosed diabetes was defined as HbA1c level ≥6.5% or fasting glucose level ≥126 mg/dL but not elevated levels of both HbA1c and fasting glucose among persons without diagnosed diabetes. Confirmed undiagnosed diabetes was defined as HbA1c level ≥6.5% and fasting glucose level ≥126 mg/dL among persons without diagnosed diabetes..