Table 4.
Cumulative incidence of VS among South African children zero to twelve years of age starting ART, PESS study 2012 to 2015 (N = 349)
| 6 months | 12 months | 24 months | p‐value | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cum. Inc. | 95% CI | Cum. Inc. | 95% CI | Cum. Inc. | 95% CI | ||
| VS <1000 copies/mL | |||||||
| Overall VS<1000 copies/mL | 57.6 | 52.1 to 62.7 | 78.7 | 73.7 to 82.9 | 84.0 | 78.9 to 87.9 | |
| Age at enrolment | |||||||
| <3 months | 46.9 | 29.7 to 62.4 | 68.1 | 49.5 to 81.1 | 78.1 | 56.9 to 89.7 | 0.001 |
| 3 to 5 months | 31.8 | 18.8 to 45.6 | 67.0 | 50.3 to 79.2 | 73.3 | 56.3 to 84.6 | |
| 6 to <12 months | 50.7 | 32.9 to 66.1 | 69.9 | 50.7 to 82.8 | 75.9 | 54.4 to 88.3 | |
| <12 months overall | 42.2 | 32.9 to 51.1 | 68.0 | 58.2 to 75.9 | 76.3 | 65.7 to 84.1 | |
| 1 to 5 years | 59.9 | 49.7 to 68.6 | 85.0 | 75.6 to 91.0 | 89.4 | 79.2 to 94.8 | |
| 6 to 12 years | 69.9 | 60.8 to 77.4 | 83.9 | 75.6 to 89.6 | 87.4 | 79.3 to 92.5 | |
| First‐line regimen | |||||||
| ABC+3TC+EFV (N = 138) | 70.6 | 62.1 to 77.5 | 85.1 | 77.6 to 90.3 | 88.0 | 80.7 to 92.6 | 0.03 |
| ABC+3TC+LPV/r (N = 205) | 48.5 | 41.3 to 55.3 | 74.5 | 67.5 to 80.2 | 81.9 | 74.2 to 87.4 | |
| VS <50 copies/mL | |||||||
| Overall VS < 50 copies/mL | 40.3 | 35.0 to 45.5 | 63.9 | 58.2 to 69.0 | 72.9 | 66.9 to 78.0 | |
| Age at enrolment | |||||||
| Age at enrolment | |||||||
| <3 months | 29.4 | 15.4 to 44.9 | 55.2 | 36.5 to 70.5 | 60.2 | 40.2 to 75.4 | <0.001 |
| 3 to 5 months | 13.8 | 5.6 to 25.6 | 41.2 | 25.5 to 56.2 | 57.2 | 37.9 to 72.5 | |
| 6 to <12 months | 17.9 | 7.3 to 32.4 | 45.0 | 26.9 to 61.5 | 61.4 | 38.4 to 78.0 | |
| <12 months overall | 19.8 | 13.0 to 27.7 | 46.6 | 36.6 to 56.0 | 60.8 | 48.6 to 71.0 | |
| 1 to 5 years | 40.4 | 30.9 to 49.7 | 67.5 | 56.8 to 76.1 | 74.6 | 63.3 to 82.9 | |
| 6 to 12 years | 59.5 | 50.0 to 67.7 | 76.9 | 67.9 to 83.7 | 83.0 | 74.1 to 89.1 | |
| First‐line regimen | |||||||
| ABC+3TC+EFV (N = 138) | 58.4 | 49.5 to 66.2 | 78.2 | 70.0 to 84.5 | 84.3 | 76.3 to 89.7 | <0.001 |
| ABC+3TC+LPV/r ((N = 205) | 28.1 | 22.0 to 34.5 | 53.7 | 46.0 to 60.8 | 65.1 | 56.2 to 72.7 | |
PESS, Pediatric Enhanced Surveillance Study; Cum. Inc., Cumulative Incidence; 95% CI, 95% confidence interval; ART, antiretroviral therapy; VS, viral suppression; ABC, abacavir; 3TC, lamivudine; LPV/r, lopinavir/ritonavir; EFV, efavirenz.