Table 1.
Probability of hospitalization, excess mortality for hospitalized states and probability of adverse events
| Parameter | Value | Variance | Distribution and coefficients for probabilistic sensitivity analysis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Six-month probability of excess mortality for NYHA class II | 0.04 | 0.032–0.048 | Beta (α = 4; β = 96) | Cowper 2004 [35] |
| Six-month probability of excess mortality for NYHA class III | 0.07 | 0.056–0.084 | Beta (α = 7; β = 93) | |
| Six-month probability of excess mortality for NYHA class IV | 0.28 | 0.224–0.336 | Beta (α = 28; β = 72) | |
| Monthly probability of hospitalization for NYHA class I | 0.015 | 0.008–0.023 | Beta (α = 1.5; β = 98.5) | Ford 2012 [19] |
| Monthly probability of hospitalization for NYHA class II | 0.024 | 0.012–0.036 | Beta (α = 2.4; β = 97.6) | |
| Monthly probability of hospitalization for NYHA class III | 0.024 | 0.012–0.036 | Beta (α = 2.4; β = 97.6) | |
| Monthly probability of hospitalization for NYHA class IV | 0.154 | 0.77–0.23 | Beta (α = 15.4; β = 84.6) | |
| Probability of short-term adverse events (30 days) | 0.070 | 0.03–0.1 | Beta (α = 3; β = 38) | Barostim Clinical evidence report (unpublished) |
| Probability of serious adverse event (Months 1 to 6) | 0.033 | 0–0.05 | Beta (α = 1; β = 29) | Hoppe 2012 [36] |
| RR for mortality in Barostim arm | 0.61 | 0.52–0.70 | Log-normal (SElog = 0.0467) | Application of the data from the MAGGIC risk prediction model to the individual patient data from the RCT of Barostim in heart failure |
| RR for hospitalizations due to heart failure in Barostim arm | 0.40 | 0.34–1.05 | Log-normal (SElog = 0.18) | Zile 2015 [18] |