Table 3.

Climate drivers and levels of predictability for WHO-TDR study regions + provides an indication of the strength of the relationship

Region	ENSO impact	ENSO predictability	Decadal Impact	Decadal predictability	Long term change	Climate Change predictions
Eastern Africa	+++ for rainfall for OND. +++ for temperature in tropics for extended period following ENSO onset. Tanzania - rainfall impact focused on northern and western regions Kenya - with temperature signal particular important in extensive highland areas.	+++ for rainfall OND in conjunction with Indian Ocean Dipole. +++ for temperature in tropics for extended period following ENSO onset. Tanzania - with rainfall forecast skill focused on regions where OND rainfall occurs. Kenya - with temperature prediction particular important in extensive highland areas.	+++ for rainfall for MAM. +++ for temperature.	Rainfall not predictable in operational context. + Temperature predictable from long term change if decadal signal is weak.	+++ for temperature warming. + Rainfall scenarios indicate wet.	+++ for temperatures warming. + for rainfall getting wetter.
Western Africa (including Sahel) (Valid for Mauretania and Ivory Coast)	++ for rainfall for JAS in Sahel. +++ for temperature in tropics for extended period following ENSO onset.	++ for rainfall for JAS in Sahel. +++ for temperature following ENSO onset.	+++ rainfall JAS. +++ temperature.	Rainfall not predictable in operational context. + Temperature not predictable in operational but long term change signal may be visible at shorter timescales if not masked by decadal signal.	+++ for temperature warming. Rainfall scenarios indicate both wet and dry.	+++ for temperatures warming. Rainfall highly uncertainty.
Southern Africa (Valid for Botswana and Zimbabwe)	+++ for rainfall in DJF. +++ for temperature in tropics for extended period following ENSO onset.	+++ for rainfall in NDJ. +++ for temperature in tropics for extended period following ENSO onset.	++ for rainfall season. +++ for temperature in tropics.	Rainfall not predictable in operational context. + Temperature long term change signal may be visible at shorter timescales if not masked by decadal signal.	+++ for temperature warming. ++ Rainfall observations indicate dry.	+++ for temperatures getting warming. ++ for rainfall drying.

+ = weak; ++ moderate; +++ strong; ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation, MAM March–April-May, JAS July–August-September, OND October–November-December, NDJ November–December-January, DJF December–January-February